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| Office of the Chancellor / Public Affairs |
Wednesday, March 3, 2004
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Sacramento Bee 3-3-04 Analysis: Victorious governor's not home free |
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If voters had turned down Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's two propositions to help get the state's battered budget back on track, there would have been a chorus of critics questioning his much-repeated pledge to take pet issues directly to the public. But not all his adversaries at the Capitol were willing to concede Tuesday that his come-from-behind victory, as impressive as it was - means everything else will come this easily for him.
"It's irrelevant," Senate President Pro Tem John Burton, D-San
Francisco, said of the effect passage of Propositions 57 and 58 will have
on Schwarzenegger's other priorities. There's no denying Schwarzenegger pulled off a win that seemed improbable just a few months earlier. He repeatedly used the word "fantastic" on Tuesday evening to describe the feat, and vowed to "speed up" his action at the Capitol. "Our work has not ended," Schwarzenegger said in a victory speech. "There are many goals that I have and many problems that we still have to overcome. So let's not sit on our laurels of victory. Our work is only beginning." In handily winning his $15 billion bond measure, Schwarzenegger has already come a long way. Democrats in the Legislature balked in December when he insisted they put his propositions on the ballot, but they acquiesced after negotiations saw both sides give a little. Over the last three months he came from behind in statewide polls and convinced skeptical voters to back him. "It's one thing to win at the ballot box," said Mark Baldassare of the Public Policy Institute of California. "It's another thing under the circumstances he did it. He started out with something that wasn't all that popular. And repeated exposure to his message apparently had a major impact on voters. "He also sort of took out the opposition. There was no campaign against the measure. That's what made it possible." Polls as recently as January showed Proposition 57, Schwarzenegger's $15 billion debt-reduction bond, losing in a state where voters are accustomed to approving bonds to build things - not to pay old bills. Almost as soon as he started appealing to voters in a multimillion-dollar television ad campaign that also featured Democratic state Controller Steve Westly, the poll numbers began to reverse themselves. But support from Democrats is bound to be more elusive when it comes to Schwarzenegger's next big goals - reforming the state's much-criticized workers' compensation insurance program and balancing the budget that is supposed to take effect July 1. "That's when the fun really starts," said Garry South, who served for years as a political strategist to recalled Gov. Gray Davis. Former Gov. Pete Wilson, a Republican and Schwarzenegger mentor who talked to reporters earlier in the night, said Democrats who stand in Schwarzenegger's way do so at their own peril. "They ought to think of the power this man has," Wilson said. "If they fail to respond to the urgent needs of their constituents, I think they are playing with fire." Schwarzenegger knows, however, he won't have things lined up this favorably again as he faces tougher tests. "Winning this election certainly strengthens his hand," said Shanto Iyengar, a political science and communications professor at Stanford University who also runs a research group on politics and the media. "But there are some issues you are going to get heavy hitters on the other side coming out. Workers' compensation is one of those prototypical issues, and since he staked so much in the recall campaign on resolving that issue, at some point he's going to be held accountable." South predicted a backlash from voters who don't understand that the bond measure does nothing to solve a structural budget deficit the legislative analyst's office has said will be $7 billion by 2005. "If I was one of those reluctant voters who voted for this because I believed Schwarzenegger when he said this would solve the state's financial problems and then I realized down the road that it didn't, I'd be pretty (angry) at Arnold Schwarzenegger," South said. There was another message in this election, however, and some experts believe it may be even more far-reaching than Schwarzenegger's current goodwill with voters. "The notion that Gov. Schwarzenegger can go to the voters all the time and get their support on everything is a gross exaggeration," said Darry Sragow, a Democratic campaign strategist who worked with Westly to get Propositions 57 and 58 passed. "The important thing, though, the untold story, is that voters really did find the bipartisan support on this to be extremely important. A Republican governor and a Democratic Legislature working together have just produced a major achievement. "You have to believe that will influence the debate and direction they take in the weeks ahead." |
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These news clips are provided by the Public Affairs Department of The California State University. They are intended for the internal use of The California State University system and should not be redistributed. Questions and submissions may be sent to publicaffairs@calstate.edu. |
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