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Office of the Chancellor / Public Affairs
Wednesday, March 3, 2004
 

Sacramento Bee 3-3-04

Dan Walters: Governor scores personal win, enhances clout

 

Californians - or at least the relative few of them who bothered to vote - gave Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger a strong personal victory Tuesday by endorsing two ballot measures he told them are vital to restoring the state's fiscal health.

Schwarzenegger raised and spent millions of dollars and conducted an aggressive personal campaign to overcome what polls had found were strong misgivings among voters about borrowing $15 billion to refinance much of the state's budget debt. And in gaining approval of the loan and a companion measure to declare balancing the budget as state policy, Schwarzenegger proved anew that he could move voters in ways that no California politician has been able to do in decades.

It's questionable whether approval of Propositions 57 and 58 by comfortable margins will have as much impact on the state's chronic budget woes as Schwarzenegger implied during the campaign. The newly elected governor still faces a 2004-05 budget that's awash in red ink, with a deficit in the $10 billion to $15 billion range, and with Republicans and Democrats still at loggerheads over whether to close the gap with new taxes or deep spending cuts. And the defeat of another ballot measure, Proposition 56, which would have lowered the legislative voting margins for budgets and taxes, means that the fundamental stalemate remains unresolved. Capitol politicians ran up the huge budget debt - as much as $25 billion by some calculations - because Republicans wouldn't raise taxes and Democrats wouldn't cut spending when deficits began to appear.

The practical impact of Schwarzenegger's win may, however, be to strengthen his political standing as he deals with the polarized Capitol, not only on the budget but on other major issues, such as overhauling the much-troubled workers' compensation system. His election in October had a small asterisk - that voters were so disenchanted with former Gov. Gray Davis that they would endorse a political novice, albeit a famous one, simply to be rid of the incumbent. Schwarzenegger, however, could claim Tuesday's win as his own, validating his self-proclaimed status as a master salesman.

When, therefore, Schwarzenegger threatens to sponsor a workers' compensation ballot measure if the Legislature fails to act, he now has the track record to back it up - and the Capitol, above all, respects the power to move voters. That, after all, is the essence of politics. Implicitly, Schwarzenegger might throw his weight behind measures to directly punish recalcitrant lawmakers by taking redistricting out of their hands and/or reinstituting an open primary system that political pros loathe. And legislators know that their institutional popularity is about a third of Schwarzenegger's approval rating these days.

Schwarzenegger indirectly alluded to the clout during an appearance before cheering supporters in Santa Monica. "I love when the people speak," he said. "It's wonderful. I love it when the people go to the polls and flex their muscle."

How will Schwarzenegger use his newly validated political standing? Aides say that he will now turn his attention to workers' compensation and the demands of employers for multibillion-dollar reforms in the system. Schwarzenegger had given the Legislature a deadline of March 1 to overhaul the system that pays for the support and medical care of workers with job-related illnesses and injuries, but the date passed Monday without anything happening. The Schwarzenegger political team that put together the campaigns for the two budget ballot measures will immediately go to work on a workers' comp initiative, with petitions beginning to circulate this week. They must be submitted by mid-April to gain a position on the November ballot.

Effectively, therefore, Schwarzenegger and the Legislature have about six weeks to put together a workers' comp deal, but Democrats, who have close political ties to lawyers and labor unions that resist major changes, are not moving quickly. To do what Schwarzenegger is demanding, the Legislature would have to restrict benefits for some workers.

Schwarzenegger's status as the Capitol's commanding figure has been enhanced, but to be a successful governor he still has to translate that status into concrete legislative action.