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Tuesday, March 2, 2004
 

Wall St. Journal 3-2-04

Editorial: Bonding With Arnie

 

California may be hosting a major Presidential primary today, but its politicos are preoccupied with the outcome of two ballot initiatives aimed at helping the state lift itself out of financial purgatory.

"For the rest of the country March 2 means Super Tuesday," says Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. "For us of course it means Super Comeback Tuesday." Or so he hopes. The extra adjective is a reference to Propositions 57 and 58, which were put on the ballot to address the large pile of debt that Governor Schwarzenegger inherited last year from his predecessor, the recalled Gray Davis.

Proposition 57 authorizes the Governor to issue a $15 billion bond to deal with the budget deficit. Its sister 58 cuts up the state's credit card, as Mr. Schwarzenegger likes to say. It's a balanced budget requirement that would bar the state from borrowing to meet operating expenses and establish a reserve to help repay the bond and cushion any revenue shortfalls down the road.

Like Mr. Schwarzenegger's performance to date -- his approval rating is a cool 61% -- the proposals are polling well and expected to pass. We're not keen on the idea of more borrowing to finance debt, but raising taxes instead would further damage an economy that has the potential to grow out of this mess.

Some conservatives, such as state Senator Tom McClintock, are opposing the measure and making the perfect the enemy of the realistic. We respect Mr. McClintock's principled stance, but voters don't seem to want the deep cuts in programs he's pushing as an alternative, which is one reason Californians chose Arnold over the state senator in the last election.

For the most part, however, Golden State conservatives seem willing to cut their new Governor some slack on spending reductions, or at least more slack than their counterparts in Washington are willing to cut President Bush. But then, the GOP Governor is dealing with a famously liberal Legislature controlled by the other party, an excuse Mr. Bush can't use.

What's passing strange is Governor Schwarzenegger's relative silence on a third ballot initiative, Proposition 56, which lowers the Legislative vote requirement for tax increases from a two-thirds majority to only 55%. Mr. Schwarzenegger has said he opposes the measure, but he didn't actively campaign against it the way he tirelessly promoted Propositions 57 and 58.

If the Governor has cut a deal to keep quiet on Proposition 56, it would certainly help explain why state employee unions and other Democratic interest groups are so vocally supporting the debt bond. Even so, dropping the super-majority rule for tax hikes, in place since 1933, is a bad trade. An easier tax-hike threshold combined with a balanced budget requirement will make it easy for the Legislature to raise taxes come the next revenue crunch.

We hasten to add that restructuring the state's debt won't get California completely out of the woods, even if it might get its credit rating out of the cellar. The bond would cover the current $10 billion debt, but another budget year is right around the corner, starting July 1, and with it comes a projected $15 billion gap between expenditures and revenues.

Mr. Schwarzenegger originally wanted to tie the bond measure to a strict constitutional spending cap. Unfortunately, the Legislature's Democratic leadership beat him at the bargaining table. Mr. Schwarzenegger has long threatened to use his star power to circumvent the Legislature if necessary and go straight to the people. Passage of the initiatives, for which he's campaigned hard, would show he's not bluffing.

And that would give the Governor leverage to move California forward on other issues, like reforming a workers' compensation system that drives businesses to other states and a steeply progressive tax code that leads to state revenue booms and busts. If Arnold wins today, it's important for him to say, "I'll be back."