MERCED -- It's a simple question with a $20 million answer. Can the University of California at Merced open in 2005?

Carol Tomlinson-Keasey, UC Merced chancellor, said $20 million is needed to hire more than 40 people to teach the first 1,000 undergraduates and buy equipment, library materials and supplies.

Without that money, UC Merced will not open in 2005. "There is no alternative plan at this time," spokeswoman Patty Istas said.

Three buildings under construction at the Lake Yosemite site will be ready in time. A curriculum is being developed, and more than 100 community college students have signed up to be among the first at UC Merced. The state already has spent more than $350 million to get the campus open in fall 2005.

But California is facing a $14 billion budget shortfall that will grow if voters don't approve a $15 billion bond measure in March.

Tuesday, Gov. Schwarzenegger will give his State of the State speech, unveiling his budget proposals. Legislative leaders think the news will be bad for UC Merced.

"You can see that, at least in the governor's eyes, they're in for another cut," said Sen. Jack Scott, a Democrat from Altadena who heads the Senate higher education budget subcommittee.

He is not optimistic about opening the campus in 2005. "Sometimes budget priorities are not determining between the good and the bad, but between the good and the best."

Similar sentiments are echoed in the Assembly.

"Everyone wants UC Merced to open," said Assemblyman Fabian Nuñez. The Los Angeles Democrat is the incoming

speaker. "The question is, do we have a clear funding stream that doesn't come at the expense (of other students)?"

Central Valley legislators and others, however, plan to push for 2005.

"It's absolutely critical to fund UC Merced and open it by 2005," said Regent Matt Murray, the student representative on the board. "To delay it any more would be devastating. We've already invested millions and millions of dollars in this."

Tomlinson-Keasey said, "We need all of the legislators in the Central Valley to say this is our No. 1 priority."

No matter what, work continues

No layoffs are expected if the campus doesn't open in 2005. The employees will continue to develop academic programs, conduct research, offer public services such as seminars and outreach, and continue working on campus plans.

UC Merced already has more than 168 employees, including 13 faculty members, with a payroll exceeding $7 million. It has contracted out $170 million from state bonds to build a library, and classroom, science and engineering buildings, along with roads, parking lots and other improvements.

Gov. Davis cut $100 million in UC funding last year. Schwarzenegger cut $30 million in December and has proposed eliminating the system's $85 million outreach program. His office won't say if there are more cuts to come.

H.D. Palmer is a spokesman for the state Department of Finance, which is putting together Schwarzenegger's budget. He said in December he could not comment on UC Merced funding. He said details won't be made public until the budget plan is delivered to the Legislature. That is scheduled to happen Friday.

Sen. Burton's not a supporter

UC Merced won't get much support from Senate President Pro Tem John Burton. This summer, the San Francisco Democrat called UC Merced the "biggest boondoggle ever." Six months later, he's not convinced the school should rank as a high priority in the face of drastic cuts. "It would be a great place to save money," he said.

Steve Boilard, higher education director at the legislative analyst's office, has approached UC Merced funding with skepticism over the years. He'll make a recommendation to lawmakers about Schwarzenegger's budget, and he says he's not convinced the school needs to open in 2005 -- or even 2006.

"I think a delay for a few years isn't going to cramp UC," he said.

His office is waiting to see the governor's budget proposal, but, he said, "we'd certainly balance the need for the $20 million going to Merced with other needs in higher education."

Analyst says start-up costs high

Boilard said he takes a longer-term look at the issue -- for example, how the campus fits into relieving enrollment pressures at other UC schools.

Regents created the Merced campus in 1995 to help deal with Tidal Wave II, a huge influx of UC students who are the children of the baby boomers.

But with enrollment expected to fall flat systemwide next year because of rising college costs, having 1,000 students at Merced in 2004-05 won't make much difference, Boilard said.

"The start-up costs at Merced are quite high on a per-student basis," he said. He also is "a little concerned" the faculty was brought aboard so early.

Campus boosters say it takes time to recruit and hire faculty. They also say professors are needed to develop the curriculum.

Founding faculty member Anne Myers Kelley has been doing physics research, helping design the curriculum and hiring professors since she arrived in June.

"It's difficult to justify your existence. The average Joe on the street is perhaps understandably upset that UC Merced has spent all that money without enrolling any students. The buildings should be done in 2005. I think it would be foolish not to open in 2005," Kelley said.

George Blumenthal, who teaches astronomy and astrophysics at UC Santa Cruz, is the incoming chairman of the UC Academic Senate and sits on the Board of Regents as a faculty representative.

He said the argument about it being wasteful to have hired faculty is wrong. "It isn't as though you can hire them and a month later you open," Blumenthal said. "They had to hire faculty a year or two before it opens."

Meanwhile, UC Merced boosters in the Legislature are moving away from promoting just the merits of a new campus, by emphasizing the economic boon to the area or the ability to tap into a long-ignored and growing pool of students from the Central Valley. The hard sell in Sacramento these days is all the money that has been spent on construction and personnel -- empty buildings will be a waste of money.

"Frankly, we have no option but to open UC Merced," said Assemblywoman Barbara Matthews, a Tracy Democrat who represents the Merced area. "You don't tear out all the kitchen cabinets and decide you can't afford to put new ones in.

"We've sunk a lot of money in it," she said. "It's not going to cost any less the longer we wait."

State Sen. Jeff Denham, R-Merced, escorted UC Merced officials through the Capitol in December to meet with Republican legislative leaders to solidify their support. He has invited lawmakers to visit the construction site Jan. 22 because many legislators think there's only open land.

"I want to show them firsthand there are all these buildings that are going up," he said. "There's a lot of money invested here. We've got to keep it going."

Merced officials are counting on Denham to serve as their connection with the governor's office. Denham was an early supporter of Schwarzenegger and campaigned alongside him.

He said he's spoken with Schwarzenegger and his finance director, Donna Arduin, about funding the campus. He said he didn't try to pin down a commitment - yet.

"I want them to understand how important this is to me and my district," he said. "We want to make sure the $20 million is in there for UC Merced."

Two years ago, UC Merced looked like a done deal. The campus was backed by political powerhouses from Davis to Rep. Gary Condit, D-Ceres, both of whom managed to earmark money for the project before they left office.

Then-Assemblyman Dennis Cardoza, D-Merced and state Sen. Dick Monteith, R-Modesto, teamed up to push money through the Legislature.

A power crisis, political scandals, a recall, changes in officeholders and a foundering economy have contributed to UC Merced's shaky state.

Typically, once the governor sets the budget for the UC system, regents decide where money is spent. But the state budget can earmark money for projects, such as the Merced campus.

"We need to maintain the momentum and the excitement," said Regent Odessa Johnson of Modesto. She sees the campus as a conduit for valley students and an engine that will revive the sagging economy.

"The university and the state already have so much invested in making the Merced campus a reality that it is not prudent to delay its opening further."

Regent Velma Montoya of Hollywood agrees with Johnson that Central Valley students need to have greater access to a UC education, and that the Merced campus will help.

But Montoya doesn't think UC Merced has been using re-sources wisely. "I think the professors should be teaching."

She said there hasn't been much follow-up on the satellite campus concept that was sold to regents on the premise that students could attend classes at outlying locations instead of going to Merced.

"I'm very frustrated with what's going on," Montoya said. "(Tomlinson-Keasey) says now she needs $20 million. That's doing it her way. I don't know if she has an alternative, something more flexible, a plan to open it at a lesser cost."

UC Merced spokeswoman Istas said the university already is offering some classes and academic advisers in Fresno and Bakersfield. The delay in opening a Modesto center was temporary, amid budget constraints. "We are still committed to the northern part of the valley," Istas said.

Peter Berck, chief of the UC Merced Task Force for the Academic Senate, thinks keeping the campus on track is a matter of simple mathematics.

"There's not enough money in UC Merced to do anything with it. (Not opening the campus) is not going to solve your state problems, and it's going to stand there as an amazingly embarrassing monument if you did that," the Berkeley economist said.

He also thinks politics will keep UC Merced moving.

"I don't see he (the governor) has a lot of choice. I don't see it's a political decision he would want to make," Berck said.

"The underlying politics are there's a large Central Valley contingent in the Legislature, and a large Hispanic contingent in the Legislature and they want this univer- sity," Berck said. "And that political reality is going to have its way.