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| Office of the Chancellor / Public Affairs |
Thursday, January 29, 2004
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Chronicle of Higher Education 1-29-04 Number of New High-School Graduates Is Projected to Rise Over All, but
Decline in Some States |
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| The number of students graduating from high school in the United States will continue to rise steadily over the coming years, reaching a peak of 3.2 million in 2008-9, according to a report scheduled to be released today by the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education and the College Board. The report's projections, which cover the years through 2017-18, also show a major shift in the racial profile of new high-school graduates over the next decade, with the number of Hispanic students surging and the number of white graduates continuing to decline. The report predicts that there will be 73 percent more Hispanic students graduating from public high schools in 2014 than in 2002. During the same period, there will be 11 percent fewer white graduates and 6 percent more black graduates. The racial patterns reflect demographic and geographic trends. "For decades families have been going to California," said David A. Longanecker, the commission's executive director. We're "now finding white families are leaving California to go elsewhere," primarily to the South and other Western states in search of jobs, he said. The commission, a 15-state coalition commonly known as Wiche, issues its projections every four or five years to help college officials plan for the future. The estimates, which also include enrollment figures for elementary and secondary schools, are based on birth rates, migration patterns, and school enrollments. This year, the group for the first time included projections of the family income of future graduates. Officials added the income projections because the ability of families to pay for a college education is a major force affecting higher-education policy, said Mr. Longanecker, a former top official in the U.S. Education Department during the Clinton administration. But he said there are "no surprises" in the projections. Wiche, which co-published the report with the College Board and ACT, expects the number of high-school graduates from families with higher incomes to outpace the growth of graduates from lower-income families. For instance, the number of graduates from families earning $20,000 or less will grow from about 438,000 in the Class of 2002 to about 463,000 in 2007, a rise of 6 percent. The number of graduates from families earning $100,001 or more is projected to grow from about 383,100 to 430,000 over roughly the same period, a jump of 12 percent. The commission estimates that eight states -- Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming -- and the District of Columbia will have far fewer new high-school graduates in 2017-18 than in 2001-2. The number of new high-school graduates peaked at 3.1 million in 1977 -- as baby boomers swept through the school systems -- and then sank through the 1980s, bottoming out at 2.5 million in the early 1990s. The children of the baby boomers are causing enrollments to rise again. There were steady increases during most of the 1990s, as well as for the first few years of the 21st century, but Wiche expects enrollment numbers to dip again at the end of this decade. Rapidly growing states, such as Arizona, Florida, Nevada, and Texas, he said, will continue to see their enrollments -- and graduating classes -- climb. But while Northeastern states will have modest growth in enrollments, colleges in the region that are building dormitories may find themselves stuck with more bed space than they need in the next 10 years, Mr. Longanecker said. Copies of the report, "Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State, Income, and Race/Ethnicity, 1988 to 2018," can be ordered from the group's Web site. |
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