For the first time in a decade, applications to the University of California have dropped, fueling speculation that UC may not have to turn away as many eligible students to cope with the budget crisis as it had anticipated.

UC received 4.1 percent fewer applications from prospective freshmen for fall 2004 than for last fall, the first decrease in applications since fall 1993.

It's not clear why, although education analysts said fee increases and a perceived reduction in quality due to budget cuts may have been factors. UC received 3,137 fewer applications than last year, for a total of 73,794 systemwide.

The decrease could be good news for UC-eligible students. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger this month proposed redirecting 3,200 students who would otherwise attend the university to a community college for two years to save the state money. Fewer applications could alleviate some enrollment pressure. UC will still probably have to turn away eligible students, just not as many, officials said.

"While we never welcome a decrease in applications, because UC is being asked to reduce enrollment by 3,200, a slight decrease may ease pressure on some of the campuses," said UC spokeswoman Lavonne Luquis.

International applications fell 18.2 percent, which UC officials attribute partially to new federal immigration policies that make it more difficult for international students to travel to the United States.

Applications from out-of-state students decreased by 9.4 percent, while 1,918 fewer California residents applied, a drop of 2.9 percent.

"What this may be indicative of is the confluence of a lot of factors," said Robert Moore, executive director of the California Postsecondary Education Commission. "The concern about future fees, the concern about diminished course offerings you have by virtue of the discussions going on around budget cuts. ... It can influence choices students and families are making. They may end up saying, 'We won't bother applying to the UC right now.'"

The university has been coping with an enrollment boom in recent years. The postsecondary education commission had predicted that UC enrollment would increase by nearly 5,000 students next fall to 160,000 and by a total of 23 percent between 2003 and 2010. The commission, a state agency, is in the process of revising these numbers.

Moore predicts the state's 108 community colleges may see enrollment projections increase, while those for UC and the 23-campus California State University system may remain level or slightly lower.

When the Legislature indicated last year that it wouldn't fund enrollment growth for this fall, the university said it might have to turn away 5,000 eligible students. Then the governor called for actually reducing fall enrollment by 3,200, leading some to speculate the university could shut out as many as 8,200 eligible students. That seems unlikely now.

"Those are projections based on the best knowledge we had at the time," said Luquis. "Things have changed since then."

Many argue that turning away any eligible students would break a 44-year-old promise outlined in the 1960 Master Plan for Higher Education.

Budget cuts over the last couple of years have forced UC and other higher education institutions into something of a crisis mode, and this decrease in applications may give the university some respite, said Moore.

"They have experienced tremendous growth. ... This may afford them the opportunity to have a bit of a breather and reassess where the demands are, how quality is holding up."

The modest growth in public high school graduates this year may also have contributed to the application decline. While the total number of graduates increased by 4.2 percent to 339,045 between 2002 and 2003, it will increase just 0.8 percent between 2003 and 2004.

The percentage of public high school graduates applying to UC has remained relatively steady at 15.4 percent in 2002, 16 percent in 2003 and 15.3 percent for fall 2004.

UC did see a 5.7 percent increase in transfer applications to 24,373, which UC officials attribute to the extra attention placed on improving the process by which community college students transfer to UC.

Seven of UC's eight undergraduate campuses experienced a decrease in freshman applications. UC Santa Cruz saw a 7.4 percent increase. The decreases ranged from 0.7 percent at Berkeley to 7.5 percent at Riverside.

UC Berkeley received just 242 fewer applications than last year, which will have a negligible impact on a campus that can accept only 25 percent of applicants each year, said Richard Black, assistant vice chancellor for administration and enrollment. Until now, students turned away from Berkeley were guaranteed a spot somewhere else in the UC system.

CSU, which truncated its application period this year, has experienced a sharp increase in applications. But officials don't think it means anything for fall enrollment. As of December 22, the most recent date available, CSU had received 47 percent more applications than it did at the same time last year.

"Does it mean we'll have a 47 percent increase? No," said spokeswoman Clara Potes-Fellow. "It means students are applying early."