President Bush's still-shapeless proposal to give legal guest worker status to some 8 million illegal aliens, one-third of them in California, may never become law.

It's not even certain whether that's what Bush really wants, or whether he just wants it hanging around on the agenda, at least until after November, as a come-on to Latino voters and political moderates.

But there's not much doubt that in places such as California, it could fuel as much backlash from conservatives, and even from centrist voters, as it draws support.

In a political season when Bush can pretty much take the right for granted, the backlash may not do much damage to the president's chances of re-election.

But it could well reduce the prospect, already slim, for any California tax increase, or for the passage of any measure such as Proposition 56 that would make it easier to raise taxes. It also increases the chances that Ron Prince's son-of-Proposition-187 initiative, which would prohibit "state or local public benefits for any aliens classified as ineligible under federal law," would pass if it gets on the November ballot.

There aren't that many public services, other than public education, which is protected by a Supreme Court decision, for which illegal aliens can qualify. But the Legislative Analyst's Office nonetheless estimates that its passage could save local governments -- counties particularly -- more than $100 million.

It's hardly certain that Prince can find the money to qualify the measure -- there's no Gov. Pete Wilson to help him out this time. But as long as nearly 70 percent of the state's voters are white, middle class and only marginally dependent on the health and social services that disproportionately serve poor and minority residents, the political dynamics are in place for a repeat of the vote for Proposition 187.

There's some clue in the old polls. In a survey just before the vote on Proposition 187 in 1994, the Field Poll reported that 85 percent of likely "yes" voters on the measure believed it would "save millions of dollars now being spent on illegal immigrants"; 78 percent believed that it would "free up money for the education of legal residents"; and 71 percent said "it will deter illegal immigrants from coming here in the first place."

But there are recent indications as well, among them the strong public opposition to the bill passed last year (and since repealed) giving illegal aliens the chance to obtain California driver's licenses. The bill helped undo Gov. Gray Davis in the recall last October.

And although it's only anecdotal, every time there are stories about crowded schools, complaints fly that the schools are only crowded because of all those aliens.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger probably knows the history of the angry Latino reaction to the support that Wilson and the California GOP gave Proposition 187, and the influx of new Latino voters, nearly all registered as Democrats, that it produced.

Although Schwarzenegger pushed the repeal of the driver's license bill, he's already endorsed Bush's plan for what appears to be temporary legalization of those 8 million aliens.

But to a great many people, the Bush plan is likely to look like another version of IRCA, the Reagan-era Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986, that offered amnesty to millions of illegal aliens. The quid pro quo was supposed to be tighter control of U.S. borders and employer sanctions to stop the wholesale employment of undocumented workers. But if IRCA did anything other than legalizing those aliens -- and ultimately opening the doors to U.S. citizenship for many of them -- it generated a second wave of illegal aliens, most of them relatives of those who received amnesty.

Americans now depend on those illegal immigrant workers -- people who take low-paying jobs in agriculture, hotels, restaurants and elsewhere that few others are willing to accept at the wages offered. We use their labor, but often resent their presence, especially in tough economic times, and the burdens that we believe they impose.

That ambivalence echoes through endless studies purporting to show, on the one hand, that immigrants pay more than their share in taxes, especially after they've been here for a number of years, and that they or their children assimilate in the classic American fashion; and, on the other, that they overburden schools, colleges and other services.

But two things seem certain: that the country is not likely ever again to have an era of immigration stability as it did between 1920 and 1960; and that until those immigrants gain a proportional voice in the electorate, their presence could well be a damper on the voters' willingness to support high-quality schooling and other services.

That creates an enormous dilemma for those who chafe at tight border controls, but who still want generous opportunities for all Californians.

And it underlines the urgent need to confront the growing gap between the forces of a global economy and our traditional ideas of community and citizenship.