SAN DIEGO - California’s estimated $15 billion budget crisis and a “tidal wave” of new students could spell big problems for access at state-funded universities, some local school officials fear.

On Jan. 9, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s proposed 2004-05 budget cut $612 million from the University of California and California State University systems. In tandem, he called for higher student fees and increased student-faculty ratios.

After four years of cuts to universities, the governor’s proposed budget leaves UC with $530 million less in net state funding than the system had in 2000-01. Student enrollments have jumped by more than 15 percent during that time.

Schwarzenegger’s proposal threatens to limit CSU student access by about 20,000 students. More than 8,000 freshmen this fall may have to attend a community college for the first two years rather than the UC system.

San Diego businessman and CSU Trustee Fred Pierce said it is the state’s responsibility to fund access to higher education. That past commitment has turned California into an economic powerhouse.

Pierce understands that every state agency feels the pinch of this budget crisis. But he believes higher education has taken a disproportionate hit.

“I don’t believe the (governor’s) current proposal is our fair share of the burden,” the CSU trustee said. “I think it’s greater.

“There are very long-term effects to these short-term budget decisions. It takes several years to earn a degree. To the extent that students are denied access, they may never enter the work force in the same capacity they could have. And (the economy) could be suffering the results of that for years.”

San Diego State University President Stephen Weber fears a replay of the early 1990s, another time of deep budget cuts. Students gained admittance, but they couldn’t find the courses they needed.

No Planning For Tidal Wave

Weber said today’s situation is complicated by California’s past failure to plan for Tidal Wave II, or the echo of the baby boom now filling classrooms. That phenomenon is expected to continue until 2015.

“California has not come to grips with it,” Weber said.

Also, more growth is concentrated in Southern California, Weber said. But the state has not sent more resources to southern schools, which places a bigger burden on local budgets and affects student access.

Two-Year Schools

The governor recommends redirecting 10 percent of UC and CSU freshmen for the fall of 2004 to community colleges.

San Diego Community College District Chancellor Augustine Gallego said the district is already stretched thin. Because of past budget cuts, the district had to reduce class offerings during the fall of 2003, and thousands of students’ names sat on waiting lists.

The district will be assigned a 1.5 percent growth factor for 2004-05, Gallego said. Even without being asked to take the overflow from UC and CSU freshmen, the demand is already greater than that, he said.

Community colleges will require more state funding to take up any slack for UC and CSU freshmen, Gallego said.

“This state needs to understand that our success and strength and solvency lie in the ability of an educated citizenry,” he said. “If we’re not preparing for the tidal wave of new students, it is morally and socially wrong.”