Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger faces a fight to persuade voters to approve a $15 billion bond on the March 2 ballot, one of the keys to his fiscal recovery plan, according to two polls released Wednesday.

"If this is the cornerstone of his budget, he's got some heavy lifting to do," said said Mark DiCamillo, Field Poll director.

The Field Poll and another one by the Public Policy Institute of California found deep skepticism about the bond despite favorable assessments of the job Schwarzenegger has done since he took office in November.

In the Field Poll, a third of the voters supported Proposition 57, the proposal to use bonds to cover $15 billion of the state's accumulated debt, while 40 percent said they would vote no. Another 27 percent were undecided.

The Public Policy Institute of California found a similar margin -- 35 percent in favor and 44 percent opposed.

"It doesn't seem to be good enough to hear the new governor supporting it," said Mark Baldassare, director of research at the institute. "They're looking for some kind of reason why this would be a good idea. ... People have to get some sense that they'll have a better future somehow, or that there will be tangible results."

The bond measure grew out of an unprecedented series of fiscal and political events. Faced with a deficit estimated as high as $38 billion last year, the Legislature and then-Gov. Gray Davis approved a budget that included the sale of a $10.7 billion bond to cover the leftover debt from the previous fiscal year.

Tapping into discontent with the state's fiscal morass, Schwarzenegger became governor in the recall election, and signaled almost immediately that he wanted voters to ratify the legally questionable step of deficit bonds.

After prolonged negotiations in December with Democratic legislative leaders, Schwarzenegger endorsed and the Legislature approved two measures for the March 2 ballot -- the $15 billion bond and a connected measure, Proposition 58, which requires balanced budgets and a rainy-day reserve. Neither proposition would go into effect unless both are approved.

California voters are routinely asked to approve bonds for building schools or roads, preserving parks or protecting water supplies. But Proposition 57 breaks new ground in its use of borrowing to retire old debt.

Schwarzenegger has argued that the bond is needed to avoid devastating cuts to state services or tax increases. The balanced-budget amendment to the constitution, he said, will prevent the state from ever again spending beyond its means.

If voters reject the plan, the state would revert to the original strategy of selling $10.7 billion in bonds. But that bond sale is being challenged by a group represented by the conservative Pacific Legal Foundation on the grounds that it violates the constitutional prohibition on year-to-year debt. A hearing in Superior Court in Sacramento has not been set.

Twin defeats at the polls and in the courtroom would blow a $15 billion hole in the budget proposal the Republican governor released last week, and would leave the state scrambling to pay off $14 billion of short-term debt due in June.

DiCamillo said he has rarely seen an initiative that started off behind in the polls win approval at the ballot.

Republican strategist Todd Harris, who worked on Schwarzenegger's campaign, said Wednesday the governor had planned to wage an aggressive campaign even before the poll numbers were released.

"We understand that we need to educate California voters on the importance of the two measures and the dire ramifications if they don't pass," he said. "The governor has made it clear these are a high priority with him and we will be out there pounding the pavement and running a full-scale campaign. ...

"As we demonstrated during the governor's campaign, no one should ever underestimate his ability to garner public attention and communicate a message."

The polls released Wednesday confirmed that Schwarzenegger enjoys widespread popularity, as most governors do early in their terms. The Field Poll found that 52 percent approved of his performance so far, compared to 27 percent who disapproved. That's lower than Gov. Jerry Brown's approval rating of 67 percent early in his term, but higher than the 42 percent who approved of Gov. George Deukmejian two months after he took office.

The question is whether Schwarzenegger's considerable popularity will translate into support for a step that voters have consistently found unpalatable.

While voters have confidence in Schwarzenegger to deal with the budget in general, DiCamillo said, "when it gets to the specifics, they hold to their own opinions. And financing the state's debt with bonds has never been popular."

Republicans supported the bonds in higher numbers than Democrats, the Field Poll found. That's a startling reversal of the normal pattern for bonds.

"How does a Republican governor convince Democratic voters that they need to adjust their views?" Baldassare asked.

Analysts said the bond proposal would benefit from support from prominent Democrats. One Democrat holding statewide office, Controller Steve Westly, is serving as co-chairman of the campaign. But another, Treasurer Phil Angelides, has consistently criticized the idea.

"Most people are going to understand that this is the fiscally responsible thing to do," Westly said. "You sell this by explaining to people that you have a short-term problem and you have to buy yourself some time."

At the same time, "a simple message of 'the sky is falling' is not going to work because voters are very skeptical," said Democratic political consultant Darry Sragow.

The prospect of tax increases might sway voters. But the polls released Wednesday found that a majority of voters either are resigned to or favor some tax increases as part of the budget solution.

Proposition 58, the balanced-budget amendment, enjoyed sizable margins of support in both polls.

In coupling the two, Schwarzenegger hoped to convey the message that he was dealing with the deficit he inherited while assuring it would never happen again.

But that message may have been muddied somewhat Wednesday when a Republican assemblyman and two anti-tax groups announced they were gathering signatures to put a spending cap before voters in November to assure the state won't face future deficits.

Schwarzenegger, with the backing of Republican lawmakers, advocated such a limit in December.

But the governor's budget deal with Democrats, which resulted in Propositions 57 and 58, stopped short of imposing a cap.

Assemblyman John Campbell, R-Irvine, said Wednesday that the new initiative would not conflict with Proposition 58. He said he doesn't expect the governor to take a stand on the spending cap. It would limit year-to-year spending growth to population increase and inflation, create a reserve of 10 percent of spending, and limit overall debt.

The organizers said they supported Proposition 58 but believe most Californians want a more effective curb on spending than what Schwarzenegger negotiated with Democrats.

"He made that agreement with them," Campbell said, "but not necessarily with the people and certainly not with us."

Rescue California, which gathered signatures to recall Davis, will do the same for the spending cap initiative.