Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger faces an uphill battle to win voter approval of the first phase of his fiscal recovery plan March 2. But if he is willing to place his personal and political credibility on the line, he can probably pull it off.

A new poll released today shows that voters are inclined to oppose Proposition 57, Schwarzenegger's proposal for a $15 billion bond to refinance the state's accumulated debt and ease the transition back toward a balanced budget.

The survey, by the Public Policy Institute of California, found that just 35 percent of voters liked the idea, while 44 percent were opposed and 21 percent were undecided.

Typically in California politics, that would be the end of the story. Ballot measures almost never improve their standing as a campaign unfolds. The usual scenario is for a measure to start off strong and see its support dwindle as people hear more about it and consider the possible downside.

But this one could be different. For one thing, by a greater than 2-to-1 margin, people said they would be more inclined to vote for the measure knowing that it was part of Schwarzenegger's recovery plan. That's the foot in the door that the governor needs.

Also consider:

* Californians, by a 59 percent to 22 percent margin, say they approve of the job Schwarzenegger is doing as governor. By a 54 percent to 26 percent margin, they approve of the job he is doing on the budget.

* Asked to say whom they lean toward for solutions to the budget mess, 33 percent chose Schwarzenegger and another 17 percent said the Republicans in the Legislature. Just 27 percent said they would look to the Democrats in the Legislature for solutions to the crisis.

* Voters also love Schwarzenegger's companion measure, Proposition 58, which would establish a mandatory budget reserve and place restrictions on future borrowing. They favor that measure by a 57 percent to 22 percent margin.

Schwarzenegger will soon begin campaigning in earnest for the bond measure. His message will be that without the bond, Californians face even deeper spending cuts and the prospect of tax increases, and he will link the unpopular bond measure to its more palatable companion.

The measures will face little organized opposition. State Treasurer Phil Angelides, who wants to run for governor in 2006, has harshly criticized the bond measure and argued that the state should raise taxes instead to pay off its budget debt. But Angelides doesn't plan a paid advertising campaign against the measure, and at this point, it doesn't appear as if anyone else does, either.

The biggest obstacle Schwarzenegger might face is indifference, or at least distraction. The Democratic presidential campaign comes to California the same day the governor's measures will be voted on, and if the race for the nomination is still in doubt, that contest will be getting wall-to-wall coverage in the media and absorbing the public's attention.

Also, over the next few weeks, the public's view of Schwarzenegger's overall budget proposal might turn negative as people who stand to lose services they now receive start making their complaints known. The plan cuts health and social services, limits college admissions and raises fees, and shifts money away from local government. While cutting government spending in theory is popular, specific cuts affecting real people are not. Some of that fallout could hurt Schwarzenegger's ability to sell his bond.

The stakes are high. If he fails, and a legally questionable bond measure approved last year by the Legislature and Gov. Gray Davis is struck down by the courts, Schwarzenegger would face a huge gap that would almost certainly lead to a tax increase, among other consequences. But if he can win passage of Proposition 57, Schwarzenegger would likely be on his way toward bringing the state's books back into balance over the course of his term.

His budget proposal falls short of doing that in one year. Legislative Analyst Elizabeth Hill says that even if everything Schwarzenegger has proposed is enacted and works as intended, an unlikely prospect, the governor still would be facing a $6 billion gap between projected spending and revenues a year from now. That's because his plan contains many of the same kind of tricks and gimmicks he rightly has said got the state into this predicament in the first place.

But it does make progress. And while Schwarzenegger hasn't laid out all the details, he appears to have in mind a three-year workout plan to bring the books back into the black. He is proposing to hold about $3 billion from his bond in reserve, and he could use that money a year from now to erase half of the new projected shortfall.

The rest of the gap could be filled by further budget cuts or the fruits of dozens of long-term reforms Schwarzenegger has sketched out in his budget, but not yet scored as savings. By 2006-07, the governor's third budget, it appears that revenues will have caught up with spending, finally.

That's assuming a lot, however. And none of it will happen if Schwarzenegger can't turn around public opinion on Proposition 57 by the March 2 election.