Pundits and flacks dubbed 1992 the "Year of the Woman," hailing what they said would be a new, bi-gender era in California politics - but that may change dramatically this year.

In 1992, California became the first state to elect two women to the U.S. Senate, doubled the number of women in its congressional delegation, expanded their share of the 120 legislative seats, and installed dozens of women in local government and on school district boards, thereby putting them on the first rung of the political ladder.

The female political surge was the result of several factors that came into play in 1992, including the prominence of education, abortion rights, health care and other issues that motivate women to vote and run for office, and the effects of a court-drawn, party-neutral redistricting plan that opened up legislative and congressional seats.

As the decade progressed, the ranks of women holding California offices continued to expand, driven in part by term limits, which created an automatic turnover of legislative seats and thus created new opportunities. Eventually, women occupied 30 percent of the state's legislative seats - 36 of 120 - and 17 of 53 of its congressional positions, plus the two U.S. Senate seats held by Barbara Boxer and Dianne Feinstein. But it looks as if 2004 may be the beginning of a big reversal.

District-by-district examinations of the 153 legislative and congressional seats up for election this year, conducted by a caucus of Democratic women in the Legislature and the California Elected Women's Association for Education and Research (CEWAER), indicate that the number of women in office will decline sharply this year - with the extent of the fall-off the only question.

"It's possible that we could lose six seats in 2004 and another 17 in 2006," says Davis Assemblywoman Lois Wolk, who chairs the Legislature's caucus of Democratic women.

Boxer is favored to win re-election to the U.S. Senate, and the ranks of women in the congressional delegation will remain intact, or perhaps even increase. The Legislature is the focal point of the decline, although the once-swelling numbers of women in local government and school board seats also appear to be dropping. "There just aren't women coming up in the ranks," says Rachel Otte-Michelin, executive director of CEWAER.

Why the decline? Term limits are one factor. The 14-year limit on legislative office - six in the Assembly and eight in the Senate - will expire in 2006 for those elected in 1992, when the number of women began its precipitous rise. That's the chief factor in the projection of a potential loss of 17 female-occupied seats in 2006.

But there are other factors, and both Wolk and Otte-Michelin point to the redistricting plan adopted by the Legislature to implement a bipartisan agreement to freeze the relative strengths of both major parties. The maps were drawn behind closed doors by senior legislators and a few trusted staffers, and no women were allowed to participate. Districts were drawn to the specifications of individual politicians who were favored by the leaders, and the results - especially in the 40-member state Senate - clearly tilted toward electing more men.

"Whether it was intentional or not, there are more women who stand to lose under the proposed Senate plan," Santa Barbara Assemblywoman Hannah-Beth Jackson - one of those whose Senate hopes were shredded - complained publicly.

Not only did the new lines disfavor women, but by creating districts dominated by one party or the other, the new plan shifted the game to primary elections in districts being opened by term limits. That, too, made it more difficult for women to gain traction as primary election campaigns became more heated.

The unity of female legislators themselves, meanwhile, fragmented, with the five Republican women leaving what had been a bipartisan women's caucus, complaining that the Democratic majority was pushing a strictly liberal agenda.

On paper, it appears as if many women are running for legislative offices this year, but in fact many of them are in districts assigned to opposing parties. "A lot of women are running for seats they're not likely to win," says Otte-Michelin.