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Office of the Chancellor / Public Affairs
Tuesday, February 24, 2004
 

Sacramento Bee 2-24-04

Daniel Weintraub: First 100 days: Three out of 10 but lots of action

 

Today is Gov. Arnold's Schwarzenegger's 100th day in office, a trivial benchmark in every chief executive's first term made significant only by the roundness of the number and, in this case, the ambitious plans of the politician.

Schwarzenegger, showing signs of the chutzpah that would characterize the early days of his tenure as governor, laid out plans for his the first 100 days on Oct. 1 - six days before he won the election. So it's only fair to judge him on his own lofty expectations.

How has he done? On a strictly numerical basis, not great. Seven of the 10 things he pledged to do in those first three months-plus he has not accomplished. But he gets an A for effort, or maybe for "action," which seems to be his second favorite word. His favorite word -- "fantastic" -- would not be an accurate description.

Schwarzenegger started quickly. On his first day in office, he rescinded the tripling of the car tax that was engineered by his predecessor, former Gov. Gray Davis.

And he soon persuaded lawmakers to repeal SB 60, the bill that would have granted drivers licenses to illegal immigrants.

He also froze administrative spending and commissioned an independent audit of the state's finances.

But the rest of his hopes for his first 100 days remain unfulfilled.

He said he would call a special legislative session and make spending cuts to address the imbalance in the current budget. He called the session, but legislators have mostly ignored him, just as they did Davis.

He promised to get California's "fair share" of Indian gaming revenue. Upon taking office, he defined that share downward to $500 million annually and appointed a negotiator to obtain it. No progress yet.

He said he would renegotiate state employee contracts to save money. He's trying. But no new deals are on the books.

He pledged to pass a jobs package reforming the state system for compensating injured workers. He proposed one, but the Legislature has yet to act on it.

He promised to streamline the state education bureaucracy and send more money to the classroom. Again a proposal, and not yet enacted.

He said he would place an open government amendment on the March ballot and ban fundraising during budget deliberations. The Legislature did place on the November ballot an open government measure that was already in the works and falls short of what Schwarzenegger promised. And with no action on the fundraising blackout, the governor has been raising money faster than any chief executive in history.

Finally, Schwarzenegger said he would propose a budget that closed the deficit and restructured the state's debt. His budget plan would make progress, but it does not completely close the deficit. And he is trying to restructure the debt with his $15 billion bond proposal, Proposition 57 on next Tuesday's ballot.

Mark that date. More than today, March 2 will serve as the end of the beginning of the Schwarzenegger administration.

If his two measures - Propositions 57 and 58 - pass, he will have stabilized the budget situation, wiping the slate clean of his inherited debt, and then some. He will be able to focus his energies on closing the projected gap between spending and revenues in the budget year that begins July 1.

If his measures fail, and both must pass for either to take effect, then Schwarzenegger's options will narrow, and he will be forced to seek even deeper cuts than he already has proposed, and probably a tax increase. He doesn't want to do either.

The outcome March 2 will also be a crucial political moment for the new governor. If he can win voter approval for the bond measure, which is not an easy sell, his boast about going to the people when the Legislature balks will have more credibility. In this case, though, the Legislature helped him place the measures on the ballot, and Democrats are campaigning for them. So a victory wouldn't necessarily prove that Schwarzenegger has the voters completely behind him.

A defeat could be devastating. It would expose Schwarzenegger's powers of persuasion as more limited than he believes them to be. And it would embolden Democrats in the Legislature who are reluctant to pass workers' compensation reform, despite Schwarzenegger's threat to take that issue to the ballot in November.

More broadly, Schwarzenegger deserves credit for changing the culture in the Capitol. He has made a point of reaching out to lawmakers of all ideologies, and he is trying to mold consensus on the major issues of the day. He seems to love the job, and his energy and focus are infectious.

On the downside, he is so determinedly optimistic that he sometimes glosses over major problems. And on the campaign trail, he has been exaggerating the effect of his propositions, claiming that they will balance the budget and keep it balanced, when it fact they would do neither. Not a good sign.

But Schwarzenegger's term is still young. The first 100 days were not nearly enough to judge his performance. The next 100 will tell us a lot more.