Arnold Schwarzenegger, the state's most prominent devotee of chess, made a bold move when he volunteered to try to persuade California voters to do something they didn't want to do: borrow $15 billion to refinance the state's huge budget deficit.

Although refinancing the deficit was one of the 10 major goals Schwarzenegger set for himself during the first 100 days of his administration, it took on a much larger political dimension as he elevated it, in effect, into a referendum on himself. If Californians truly trusted him to clean up Sacramento's fiscal mess, he implied, they'd set aside their reluctance to borrow so much money and approve Proposition 57. More than one Capitol insider has suggested, albeit privately, that Schwarzenegger was risking his entire governorship on this one issue.

While voter approval of the huge and very unusual bond issue would solidify Schwarzenegger's standing as the state's dominant political figure, prove that his election was more than a rejection of Gray Davis, and make it easier for him to achieve other goals, its rejection would be an immense setback. Schwarzenegger has implied as much by taking on Proposition 57 as a personal mission, raising millions of dollars for television ads - incurring some criticism in the process - and campaigning as energetically as he did last fall for the governorship or as he had done for years to promote movies. And a new statewide poll indicates that Schwarzenegger's highly focused campaigning is having its intended effect, one helped by the lack of organized opposition.

The Field Poll found that California voters approve of Schwarzenegger's performance to date by a more than 2-1 ratio, thanks to an immense approval rating among his fellow Republicans and an even division among Democrats, and are increasingly likely to approve his bond issue. A month ago, Field found that just 33 percent of voters were inclined to vote for Proposition 57 while 40 percent were opposed, but the new poll, conducted Feb. 18-22, found that support had risen to 50 percent and opposition had dropped to 36 percent.

Interestingly, the Field Poll contrasts strongly with a poll conducted for the Public Policy Institute of California and released last week. The PPIC poll reported a 38 percent bond approval level with 41 percent opposed, but timing may explain the difference. PPIC conducted its poll between Feb. 8 and 16, and television ads featuring Schwarzenegger began airing during that period. In fact, PPIC reported that support began to climb in survey results after the ads began airing. And the two polls were in close sync on Schwarzenegger's overall approval ratings.

Although Schwarzenegger has not delivered on all his 100-day goals, winning approval of the bond issue would cap a solid beginning record. His most appealing trait - one that voters appear to appreciate - is that he's trying to govern, engaged in a manner that Davis was unwilling to adopt. It's doubtful whether Californians expect him to deliver everything he says he wants to do, but they do expect him to try, and no one can fault him on that account.

The budget crisis, which soured Californians on Davis, remains Schwarzenegger's biggest hurdle. Passage of Proposition 57 would ease the transition from deficit budgets, but Schwarzenegger is overselling its impact - and the potential consequences of its defeat - as he campaigns for votes. The more important fiscal issue is what to do about the multibillion-dollar structural deficit that would plague budgets for many years if current trends hold true. Even if Schwarzenegger's current budget proposals were to be adopted, as the Legislature's budget analyst points out, the state would still be left with a $7 billion structural gap in 2005-06.

Schwarzenegger's prescription is, in effect, to buy time, squeezing spending for a couple of years until an improving economy can close the gap. But that runs afoul of the Democrats' hopes to preserve current levels of health and welfare spending and raise taxes to make up the difference.

If Proposition 57 is enacted, its chief effect would be to raise Schwarzenegger's credibility on the budget, workers' compensation and other issues, proving to Democrats that if they remain intransigent, he has the power to go over their heads to voters.