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Office of the Chancellor / Public Affairs
Tuesday, February 24, 2004
 

Sacramento Bee 2-24-04

Bond measure gaining favor
Poll credits the governor's popularity for turnaround.
By Clea Benson

 

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's popularity is driving a dramatic turnaround for his March 2 bond issue, which has suddenly gained favor with voters after he started selling it in television ads, according to a poll released Monday.

Support for Proposition 57, the $15 billion Economic Recovery Bond Act that Schwarzenegger wants to use to help patch the state's budget shortfall, now leads 50 percent to 36 percent, the Field Poll found. A month ago, 40 percent of likely voters said they opposed Proposition 57 and only 33 percent were for it.

Voters also said they were likely to approve Proposition 58, the companion measure to the bond that Schwarzenegger also is backing, and Proposition 55, a $12.3 billion bond issue for school construction. But the poll showed only a third of voters in favor of Proposition 56, which would make it easier for lawmakers to pass a budget and raise taxes. Proposition 58 requires lawmakers to enact a balanced budget, establishes a budget reserve and prohibits future borrowing to shrink deficits.

Mark DiCamillo, director of the statewide survey, said the jump in Proposition 57's popularity was almost unprecedented. He said he recalled only one initiative - the 1992 repeal of the snack tax - that ended up passing after starting out behind.

"It's in the main attributable to Schwarzenegger," DiCamillo said. "It's the strength of his support and political capital that are pushing this ahead."

DiCamillo also gave some credit to Democratic leaders who have endorsed the measure, saying that they probably softened some opposition. The poll showed Republicans were the bond's strongest supporters, with 63 percent in favor and 24 percent opposed. Democrats and independent voters were about evenly split, with 41 percent in favor and 42 percent opposed. In the January survey, only 28 percent of Democrats supported the measure.

Schwarzenegger, who was attending a National Governors Association conference in Washington when the poll was released, acknowledged the role of his own popularity but said Democrats' help was crucial.

"The major credit goes to the Democrats and the Republicans working together," the governor said in an interview with The Bee. "To me that is the key thing, that is where the attention goes, instead of about me. Alone I cannot do it, but together we can. That's what this is about."

State Controller Steve Westly, a Democrat who has been campaigning for the bond issue along with Schwarzenegger, also credited the bipartisan effort.

Two weeks ago, Schwarzenegger and Westly started appearing together in a blitz of television ads touting the bond. The ads have helped: A poll by the Public Policy Institute of California, released Thursday but taken largely before the ad campaign began, showed the measure trailing 38 percent to 41 percent.

Yes on 57 and 58 campaign spokesman Todd Harris said the campaign plans to start airing new ads today and Wednesday featuring Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif.

"The numbers are looking good, but we're not going to slow down for a second," he said.

Almost half of voters who supported the bond measure said they feared taxes and fees would rise and state services would be cut if it were not approved. Only about a third of the people who opposed the measure or were undecided predicted those consequences.

The survey results were released on the same day as another Field Poll showing Schwarzenegger's popularity had grown to 56 percent among registered voters, up 4 percent from last month. And that popularity spilled over into support for Proposition 57.

One in four voters said they were more inclined to favor the bond because Schwarzenegger supported it.

Registered Democrat Gina Gentile, 34, was among them.

"I'm basically for anything he does," said Gentile, a medical assistant from Tracy. "I find that he's a really strong man, and I think he'll do the right thing for our state."

The way people like Gentile are reacting to Schwarzenegger is turning three decades of political tradition on its head, said Tim Hodson, director of the Center for California Studies at California State University, Sacramento.

"Conventional wisdom was always that initiatives that start out behind are going to fail," Hodson said. "We are in unconventional times. The conventional wisdom does not have room for the Schwarzenegger factor."