When the campaign to recall Gov. Gray Davis began in earnest this summer, it had a surreal quality -- the political equivalent of a Salvador Dali landscape.

With movie star Arnold Schwarzenegger and Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante joining a very eclectic, 135-candidate field of would-be successors to Davis, with lawsuits proliferating -- and with Davis portraying himself as the victim of a right-wing conspiracy -- many observers used the word "circus" to describe what was happening. Television talking head shows and newspaper op-ed pages bloomed with creative theories about what strange things might happen.

With four weeks remaining until the Oct. 7 election, however, California's historic recall is settling into a familiar political pattern: one Democrat and one Republican slugging it out for the governorship. And a major factor in the scenario is a growing assumption that Davis is doomed, and the only real question to be resolved on Oct. 7 is whether Republican Schwarzenegger or Democrat Bustamante replaces him.

A new Field Poll reinforces this assumption. While Davis has made a little headway in narrowing pro-recall sentiment, the poll -- taken after last week's Walnut Creek debate in which Davis appeared alone -- found the gap is still very wide, 55 percent to 40 percent, with only a handful of voters still undecided.

Bustamante already has shifted his emphasis from a dual no-on-recall, yes-on-Bustamante message to just touting himself as California's next governor. During a major campaign appearance and speech in Fresno on Sunday, Bustamante didn't even mention Davis until the very end. Later, he acknowledged his tactical shift, telling reporters that "the governor is focused on the first question and I've got to be focused on the second."

The Field Poll's good news for Bustamante is that he's leading the field with 30 percent, followed by Schwarzenegger at 25 percent and Republican state Sen. Tom McClintock at 13 percent. The poll's bad news for Bustamante is that if McClintock were to drop out, Schwarzenegger would pull even and perhaps move a bit ahead, and that the actor appeared to have more potential for growth.

Bustamante is very dependent on Democrats for his support, the poll shows, while Schwarzenegger draws much better from independents and has more cross-party backing. Even though he's the only major Democrat on the ballot, Bustamante gets just 59 percent of the Democratic support in the poll. Not only does Schwarzenegger pull 10 percent of Democrats, but others on the ballot -- presumably Green Party candidate Peter Camejo and independent Arianna Huffington, mostly -- are favored by 16 percent of Democrats -- and there are relatively few undecided Democrats.

The data indicate that Bustamante may be very close to bumping into his ceiling of support, perhaps 35 percent to 38 percent, while Schwarzenegger still has room to expand into that range or beyond -- if he can consolidate Republican backing, and particularly if McClintock, the most conservative of the major contenders, were to drop out.

Nearly all of McClintock's 13 percent in the Field Poll comes from his 27 percent share of Republicans, but that may be about as high as he can aspire, and he's coming under increasing GOP pressure not to spoil Schwarzenegger's chances. Whether McClintock remains in the race is probably the most important single factor now affecting the outcome. But even if McClintock remains in the running, it's still at least theoretically possible for Schwarzenegger to overtake Bustamante by continuing to make inroads among Democrats and independents and capturing the lion's share of undecided Republicans.

Thus, the poll frames the state Republican Party convention that will be staged in Los Angeles next weekend -- one in which pro-Schwarzenegger party leaders have assigned him the starring role. He will deliver a luncheon speech Saturday -- thus guaranteeing him prime exposure to GOP activists and the media -- while McClintock has been relegated to a relatively minor slot much later in the evening.

It's Schwarzenegger's opportunity to consolidate the Republican Party behind his campaign for the governorship, and if he does, his duel with Bustamante will tighten -- just as the two clash in what could be their only face-to-face debate Sept. 17.