WALNUT CREEK, Calif., Sept. 4 — As Gov. Gray Davis left the first California recall debate here on Wednesday, he had the confident air of a man gaining some control over his political destiny.

Though the outcome of the Oct. 7 election remains anyone's guess, and Mr. Davis continues to trail even in his campaign's internal polls, there is a growing sentiment among Democrats and many political analysts that Mr. Davis has a fighting chance of surviving the effort to oust him.

Just a few weeks ago, many of the same people had written off Mr. Davis's prospects and were suggesting that the Democrats' only salvation lay with Lt. Gov. Cruz M. Bustamante, one of the 135 candidates lined up for the governor's job should Mr. Davis lose the recall vote.

"Sometimes you like the devil you have more than the devil you don't have, so you hold your nose, and say, `O.K.,' " said Barbara O'Connor, director of the Institute for the Study of Politics and Media at the California State University at Sacramento. "I think he has a shot, and I wouldn't have said that a month ago."

Mr. Davis seems to be benefiting indirectly from divisions within the Republican Party, reflected by a standoff between the party's two leading candidates for his job, the actor Arnold Schwarzenegger and State Senator Tom McClintock. If Mr. Davis loses the recall vote, which will be determined by a simple majority, the successor candidate with the most votes on the second part of the ballot would be governor.

Top Republicans have failed in their efforts to get Mr. McClintock, the contest's most heralded conservative, to drop out. Even if they were to succeed before Oct. 7, Mr. McClintock's name would remain on the replacement ballot.

Mr. Davis also has the advantage that Mr. Bustamante, the top Democrat among the possible successors, is a lackluster campaigner who has staked out many positions to the left of Mr. Davis, most notably by advocating new taxes on big businesses and the wealthy and calling for state regulation of gasoline suppliers. Mr. Bustamante has also come under attack for accepting millions of dollars in contributions from Indian tribes, something the state's Democratic Party chairman, Art Torres, defended today as legal but acknowledged "invited vulnerability."

Prof. Bruce Cain, director of the Institute of Governmental Studies at the University of California, said Mr. Bustamante had helped make Mr. Davis appear more reasonable to the state's centrist voters, including the independents and moderate Republicans who might determine the election's outcome.

Professor Cain said the combination of Republican infighting and Mr. Bustamante's more extreme views could hand victory to Mr. Davis, who despite recent tilts to the left has mostly governed from the center. That combination, the professor said, could convince pragmatic voters that a Republican victory was impossible and that keeping Mr. Davis in Sacramento was the least unpalatable alternative.

Mr. Davis appeared buoyant and assured on a flight from Oakland to Los Angeles after the debate on Wednesday. He pointedly commented on the performance of the candidates and even went after the event's biggest no-show, Mr. Schwarzenegger, saying he was hiding from the voters.

Aides to the governor said he was feeling more hopeful in part because the campaign was attracting the money and attention it needed and in part because internal polls indicated the trend shifting his way. The last public opinion poll, conducted two weeks ago by The Los Angeles Times, showed Mr. Davis losing by five percentage points, a much tighter margin than earlier in August.

National interest in Mr. Davis's fate among prominent Democrats has also been intense. Steve Smith, Mr. Davis's campaign director, said a typical morning strategy session began with a free-for-all of suggestions from a host of advisers.

"I think people were more concerned two weeks ago than they are now," Mr. Smith said. "We are beginning to feel the momentum coming our way."

Senator Dianne Feinstein, who is appearing in television commercials on Mr. Davis's behalf, said Mr. Davis's strategy of getting out among the voters, which included an appearance tonight at a town-hall-style meeting in San Diego, appeared to be paying dividends.

"I think people are beginning to see what this recall means for the people in the state," Mrs. Feinstein said. "My own view has always been that he could beat this. The more people see the other candidates, the more there is a possibility that he can win."

By many accounts, the debate here provided an important glimpse at what Mr. Davis faces in the final 33 days of the campaign. And it was not the picture of doom and gloom that has dominated most recall discussions until recently.

Mr. Davis's most formidable opponent, Mr. Schwarzenegger, skipped the debate to campaign on his own at a college campus. That left Mr. Davis, who appeared on television answering questions for 25 minutes ahead of the debate, as the biggest name on the marquee.

It also left Mr. Schwarzenegger open to Mr. Davis's accusation that he was ducking the tough questions, a claim that has been dogging the Schwarzenegger campaign with increasing intensity.

Speaking in Riverside today, Mr. Schwarzenegger tried to clarify some of his opinions on recent big issues, including passage in the State Legislature on Wednesday of a bill that would allow illegal immigrants to apply for driver's licenses. Mr. Schwarzenegger said he would rescind the bill if elected. Mr. Davis has promised to sign it.

But Mr. Schwarzenegger continued to hedge on other topics, insisting he would not raise taxes but declining to say whether he would lay off state employees.

Not only did none of the five candidates who did attend the debate on Wednesday deliver a knockout punch to Mr. Davis, but none also emerged as the hands-down alternative to him, allowing Mr. Davis to look more gubernatorial than ever.

"If I had to bet on an outcome, I would put slightly better than even money on him pulling it out," said Walter J. Stone, chairman of the political science department at the University of California at Davis.

Mr. McClintock, may have played right into Mr. Davis's hand in the debate by doing a particularly good job of reaching out to his conservative base and further driving a wedge between him and Mr. Schwarzenegger. Mr. McClintock spoke about his opposition to abortion, praised a contentious ballot issue on the collection of racial data and spoke forcefully against illegal immigration — all the stuff of conservative talk radio.

"The best thing for Gray Davis last night was to have McClintock do well," Professor Cain said. "He should probably slip some money under the table to McClintock. The better McClintock does, the more likely Gray Davis gets re-elected."