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| Office of the Chancellor / Public Affairs |
Tuesday, September 16, 2003
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Sacramento Bee 9-16-03 Analysis: Postponement could help Davis the most |
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The candidate with the most to gain from Monday's court ruling appears to be the one in the cross hairs of the recall election, Gov. Gray Davis. If the federal appellate ruling is upheld, postponing the election, it buys the Democratic incumbent time to turn voters against a move a drastic as recalling him. "It gives him more time for the economy to improve, for the animosity against him in the electorate to fade, and for the other candidates to stumble and make him look good in comparison," said Republican political consultant Kevin Spillane. It also gives Davis time to refill campaign coffers emptied in last year's re-election. Should Monday's decision by a three-judge panel of the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals be overturned by the Supreme Court, putting the election back on track for Oct. 7, it could spike anti-recall turnout among Democrats still angry at the high court for bringing President Bush to office in 2000. "It will just add an afterburner to our Republican-power-grab argument," said the governor's media consultant, David Doak. "It'll energize Democrats like nothing you've ever seen." Analysts also said such a decision could boomerang against Bush nationally in his re-election bid next year. Meanwhile, Davis and the top five candidates vying to replace him planned to proceed with ads and campaign stops as if the election were still three weeks away. "I am prepared to conduct this election whenever the courts tell me it's going to occur," Davis told reporters during a campaign appearance after the ruling. Davis' campaign team worried at the outset that the two-month timetable of an October special election might doom him. The state's poor economy and battered government finances had little chance of recovering in such a short time period. And a media frenzy fueled by the celebrity campaign of Republican challenger Arnold Schwarzenegger had many voters in a lather and ready to act. By last week, the independent Field Poll showed recall support leveling off, to 55 percent, from 58 percent the month before. The question became whether Davis would run out of time. "What he appears to have been given is a reprieve," said Field Poll Director Mark DiCamillo. There is some risk for Davis in a delay, however. Each January, the governor proposes a budget, and unless things improve dramatically, that budget might need to include unpopular cuts or tax increases. And each controversial measure he signs into law this year will be fodder for opponents in a later campaign. Already, there are calls for a referendum on a bill he signed allowing undocumented immigrants to apply for driver's licenses. Just what Monday's ruling does to the campaigns of Davis' challengers was a matter of dispute among pollsters, campaign consultants and scholars in the hours after the ruling. Many said Schwarzenegger, the Republican front-runner, would be hurt. "His appeal all along has been his newness, his novelty," said Ken DeBow, a government professor at California State University, Sacramento. "That's going to be worn a lot thinner if we're looking at an election five months down the road. "There's going to be a lot more pressure on him if this is upheld to actually talk more substantively about what he'd do as governor -- beyond 'We need new leadership.' " Others made the case a delay could help the first-time candidate. Recent polls showed the actor stuck in second place, behind Democratic Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, with voters concerned about his inexperience. The third-place candidate, Republican state Sen. Tom McClintock, has indicated he plans to stay in the race rather than withdraw to consolidate support behind Schwarzenegger. "It will obviously give him more time to get his positions sorted out," DiCamillo said. "He'll still be a celebrity five months from now. The question is will he be seen as more up to the job? A more credible candidate?" Analysts were also of two minds as to how a delay might affect Bustamante. Pollsters initially predicted turnout in March would favor Democrats because of a contested presidential primary. If that held but voters were still inclined to recall Davis, Bustamante could benefit. But Republicans may be angry enough to turn out heavily at the polls anyway if the recall vote is postponed. Recent polling also suggested long-term problems for Bustamante. His negatives with voters rose to nearly 50 percent after the first major debate and his acceptance of millions in campaign money from Indian casino interests. Generally, experts expected a delay to hurt candidates strapped for money. The current media intensity is likely to diminish, and a traditional reliance on paid advertising likely will pick up. That could affect the third-, fourth-and fifth-place candidates in polls -- McClintock, independent political columnist Arianna Huffington and Green Party money manager Peter Camejo. Coverage is almost certain to peter out for most of the other candidates remaining on the ballot, which at the time of the court's ruling had a record 135 names, including publicity-seeking actors, comedians and pornographers. GOP consultant Spillane said a delay would remove "the immediate pressure for (McClintock) to drop out and he can continue to campaign for the next five months. ... The downside is he's up for re-election next year. He can run for both offices but it complicates his efforts." Ironically, the delay might have helped former baseball commissioner and Olympics organizer Peter Ueberroth. The wealthy and well-connected but uncharismatic Republican dropped his bid last week, saying he needed a longer campaign based more on substance and reason, to be competitive. There was no word from Ueberroth's campaign Monday on whether he would re-enter the race. He plans to make good on a previous commitment to meet today with Schwarzenegger and McClintock to consider an endorsement. |
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These news clips are provided by the Public Affairs Department of The California State University. They are intended for the internal use of The California State University system and should not be redistributed. Questions and submissions may be sent to publicaffairs@calstate.edu. |
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