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| Office of the Chancellor / Public Affairs |
Tuesday, September 16, 2003
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Sacramento Bee 9-16-03 Court ruling brightens GOP's lot in the recall |
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Three Democratic appointees on the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals have tried to save the Democratic Party in the recall election by delaying it until March, when supposedly that party would prevail. Republicans can howl their heads off, but in reality these Democrats have done the GOP a huge favor. Republicans should not try to get this ruling reversed. The not-ready-for-prime-time GOP was fast losing. In typical Republican fashion, right-wing activists had funded the recall and gotten it on the ballot, and then walked away. There has been no Yes on the Recall campaign, and slowly Gov. Gray Davis has eaten away at the huge lead the recall once enjoyed. At this pace, a recall vote in October would have been defeated, making Davis a national hero for thwarting the GOP power grab. Now Republicans can put together a campaign to win on the first ballot question: Shall Davis be removed from office? They were heading toward a big loss. And the extra months will give the GOP time to do something about the all-important second question. The replacement election consists of a united Democratic Party behind Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante and a primary election in the Republican Party between the pragmatic Arnold Schwarzenegger and right-wing ideologue state Sen. Tom McClintock. The notion that somehow the minority Republicans could win the governorship when they have two candidates running and the majority Democrats only one candidate was utter nonsense. Now Republicans have several months to sort out who will go up against Bustamante. Most important, the ruling gives the woefully unprepared Schwarzenegger vitally important time to learn the issues and to convince the public he can handle the job of governor. As his celebrity candidacy has worn thin, more and more voters in recent polls have asked the "where's the beef?" question. He needs time to come up with answers. He also needs to rid himself of the Wilson-era power brokers who have in a single month reduced him from a true outsider to another run-of-the-mill politician. For starters, Schwarzenegger should fire all his campaign fund-raisers. The first thing he said as a candidate was that he would not take special-interest money. Then his handlers promptly began doing just that, using professional fund-raisers, who of course get a nice commission with every buck they extract from star-struck Republican moneybags. Schwarzenegger's lame excuse - it's not special-interest money if they give it to me - would make even Davis shakedown henchmen blush. Finally, Republicans should look at the March ballot. It has been dogma among the chattering classes that the later election would benefit Davis because Democrats would turn out in huge numbers for the presidential primary. But the chattering classes are wrong. A look at primary elections over the past dozen years shows a fairly regular pattern - Democratic turnout is about at Democratic registration, or about 45 percent of the electorate. And primary voters - at least the first 5 million primary voters - are quite conservative. Primaries always attract a larger percentage of regular voters who are older, homeowners and more Republican-inclined. That will be no different in March 2004. Further, if Republicans get their act together - always a big if with the can't-shoot-straight party - a major ballot issue in March should be a referendum of the Davis-signed illegal alien driver's license bill. Of all the pandering of the Davis era, nothing quite matches his vetoing last year such a bill but with some safeguards, followed by his signing this year of one with none - solely to garner favor with Latino voters. The March ballot also will include a blank check initiative to repeal the two-thirds requirement for enacting the budget and raising taxes, not a popular idea with conservative voters. As for the Democratic presidential race, that could well be decided long before California. Most important, the 9th Circuit ruling, on the flimsiest of grounds, has frustrated the people's right to a quick recall vote. This is more of the political class just acting to protect itself. With a vote in March, the legislative primaries would become part of the recall process, with Democratic legislative candidates forced to take a position on recall issues. The March election also would force Davis to submit one more budget, sure to incorporate the same smoke and mirrors of the 2003 budget. The Democratic activists who sued to stop the October vote may well have saved Republicans from probable defeat, but then set in motion a worse situation for beleaguered Democrats. This may well be a classic example of not asking for something as you may well get it. Tony Quinn is co-editor of "California Target Book," a nonpartisan analysis of California legislative and congressional elections. He can be reached at taquinn@worldnet.att.net. |
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