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| Office of the Chancellor / Public Affairs |
Monday, September 15, 2003
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Sacramento Bee 9-14-03 Dan Walters: Schwarzenegger woos conservatives in quest for unity |
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LOS ANGELES -- Movie star Arnold Schwarzenegger's improbable quest for the governorship of California is utterly dependent on consolidating support among fellow Republicans. Schwarzenegger does not need every Republican vote to win his duel with Democratic Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante -- should Gov. Gray Davis be recalled -- but he does need at least two-thirds of them as a base to which he could add some independents and Democrats. So far, the polls indicate, Schwarzenegger doesn't have that two-thirds GOP backing, in part because a more conservative Republican rival, state Sen. Tom McClintock, has continued to campaign even though he runs behind both of the leaders. Schwarzenegger came to the state Republican convention on Saturday with the twin goals of reassuring skeptical conservatives that he would remain true to their values as governor -- his somewhat liberal social positions notwithstanding -- and bringing more pressure to bear on McClintock. Having been given a starring role by supportive party leaders, Schwarzenegger responded by delivering red-meat rhetoric that drew heavy, if not thunderous, applause. He repeatedly referred to himself as a conservative who would roll back increased taxes on cars, "terminate" the new law allowing illegal immigrants to obtain driver's licenses, balance the state budget without new taxes and adopt more business-friendly policies. "I can say no -- no to Davis, no to Bustamante, no to more taxes, no to more spending," Schwarzenegger pledged. "I will be saying no to these liberals in Sacramento." Obliquely, Schwarzenegger urged McClintock and his backers not to be spoilers. "Are we going to be united or are we going to be divided?" he asked GOP activists during his luncheon address. "Are we going to win in unity with our common fiscal conservative principles or let the liberals win because we are split? Are we going to fight Davis and Bustamante or are we going to fight among ourselves?" McClintock, who was given a lesser spot on the agenda, didn't immediately volunteer to join Schwarzenegger's team, of course. In fact, he insisted that he'll continue to campaign "to the finish line" -- citing some shaky polling data that indicates he has picked up a little ground. Pointedly, however, McClintock, a state senator from Ventura County, has not conducted an ideological crusade against Schwarzenegger -- and both camps have carefully avoided an irreparable rift. McClintock, in fact, has predicted that if he continues to run behind Schwarzenegger as the Oct. 7 election nears, some of his support would probably shift to the actor on its own, without prompting. McClintock, a lifelong worker in the Republican vineyards, is clearly enjoying the national media attention. And he has a little ax to grind with the state GOP leadership for not helping him with money last year when he was running very close to Democrat Steve Westly in their contest for the state controller's office. McClintock lost to Westly by a narrow margin and might have won had he been better financed. Schwarzenegger's strategists would prefer, of course, for McClintock to drop out and throw his support to the actor, but they believe they can still beat Bustamante -- whose campaign appears to be in stall mode -- if McClintock's overall share of the vote remains where it is, roughly 12 percent to 13 percent, or about a third of the projected GOP turnout. If Schwarzenegger can simply draw the remaining undecided Republicans, he'd be well positioned in his duel with Bustamante. McClintock has little ability to raise big campaign dollars on his own, the kind of money that could finance $1 million-a-week media buys. Schwarzenegger's advisers worry, however, that casino-owning Indian tribes -- the same tribes that have contributed lavishly to Bustamante -- might dump big money into an "independent expenditure" campaign against Schwarzenegger to bump up McClintock's share of the vote and thus fracture the Republican base. If it happens, it would be a new version of the ploy that Davis used last year, when he spent upward of $10 million to persuade Republicans not to nominate former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan, whom Davis considered his strongest GOP challenger. |
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