With less than a month to go before the Oct. 7 recall election, support is crumbling for a ballot measure that would restrict the state from collecting certain racial data, according to a Field Poll released Wednesday.

Proposition 54 is favored by 40 percent of likely voters, down from 46 percent in an August survey. Forty percent also oppose the initiative by Ward Connerly, while two in 10 voters remain undecided.

"It's looking ominous for its chances of passage," said Field Poll Director Mark DiCamillo. "When you lose your margin, it's pretty much over," unless some new factor emerges in the campaign.
The poll results cap a bad few days for the Proposition 54 campaign. On Saturday, GOP gubernatorial front-runner Arnold Schwarzenegger came out against the measure, and Democratic Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, also a replacement candidate in the Oct. 7 recall election, said he would shift nearly $4 million of campaign money to an advertising attack on Proposition 54.

Connerly, the chief advocate of Proposition 209, which banned race-and gender-based preferences in state hiring and contracting and university admissions, also is awaiting a court hearing that could force his campaign to more fully disclose the names of its donors.

The poll showed that 53 percent of Schwarzenegger's backers favor Proposition 54, but otherwise support is lukewarm across the board.

It is opposed by 58 percent of Latino voters and half of African Americans. Whites are virtually split on the issue -- 40 percent in favor and 38 percent against.

The measure would ban state government from classifying people by race, ethnicity, color or national origin, except for medical research or to meet court decrees and federal requirements.

Opponents claim that Proposition 54 would bar race-related data used to identify trends and design outreach programs. Birth and death certificates would be affected, as would the cancer registry and hospital and laboratory reports, they contend.

But supporters -- and independent analysts -- say the measure is not meant to interfere with any health-related issue.

According to a report by the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst's Office, statistics could continue to be compiled on the racial composition of government job applicants and employees, and of students in public schools and colleges. The measure also would exempt data on individuals who receive food stamps or cash assistance, or who use public drug, alcohol or mental health services, the report said.