SACRAMENTO - Higher education leaders Tuesday sketched out the grim prospect of having to ration fewer and fewer spots at California's public colleges and universities because of state funding cuts.

``We're starting a massive dismantling of access'' to higher education, said Thomas J. Nussbaum, chancellor of the state's community college system. ``We should do what we can to keep that from happening.''

Nussbaum organized Tuesday's strategy session here involving leaders of the community colleges, the University of California and California State University.

They drew parallels between now and what happened during budget crises in the 1980s and '90s, when at community colleges and CSU campuses particularly, tens of thousands of students left or never arrived as fees went up and course offerings were cut.

Now that scenario is beginning to play out again, said Nussbaum.

In the past year, fees have risen 40 percent for undergraduate admission to UC and CSU and 64 percent for community colleges. The number of classes has been pared back at many campuses.

What is different this time is the rising tide of college-age students clamoring to get in.

State legislative leaders have put UC and CSU on notice that the state will not fund any enrollment growth for 2004-05.

The state funding cuts and the glut of students already is causing public colleges and universities to turn students away.

``We may no longer be able to guarantee a student who is eligible for UC a place,'' said Dennis Galligani, associate vice president for student academic services for the University of California.

That is a major departure from the California Master Plan for Higher Education that UC will guarantee a space at one of its campuses for the top 12.5 percent of students in the state, and CSU for the top 33 percent, Nussbaum said.

What's happened at the community colleges ``is not a cut, it's more like a murder,'' said P.J. Johnson of the California Student Association of Community Colleges.

And as UC and CSU turn back students, they will fill up slots in the community colleges, Johnson said, ``removing students from the system that this system was designed to help in the first place.''

Steve Boilard, who tracks higher education for the state Legislative Analyst's Office, questioned some of the predictions on enrollment declines.

Clearly there is a relationship between fees and funding and enrollment, he said. But if someone decides not to pay $18 a unit at a community college, ``does it mean access is denied or is it a rational choice that they don't want to take that class? You need to allow for the fact there are people who will be eligible for college who choose not to attend.''