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Office of the Chancellor / Public Affairs
Tuesday, May 13, 2003
 

North County Times 5-13-03

State not alone with budget problems
DAVE DOWNEY

 



While California staggers under the weight of a budget shortfall estimated at between $26 billion and $35 billion, the Golden State can take at least some comfort in knowing it is not alone.

A total of 41 states are wrestling with projected budget deficits for next year totaling $78 billion, and in most, revenues are falling even below dismal projections, according to a new analysis by the National Conference of State Legislatures.

As a result, bothersome tax increases and painful program cuts are spreading across the country. The administration of Gov. Gray Davis sought to underscore that point Monday ---- two days before a scheduled Wednesday release of his final revised budget ---- in a telephone news conference with Scott Pattison, executive director for the National Association of State Budget Officers, and Nicholas Jenny, senior analyst with The Rockefeller Institute, a Washington think tank.

"The situation for states is nothing short of brutal," Pattison said. "And it has pretty much hit every region of the country, small states and large states alike."

California, the largest state in population and the size of its budget, has erased $7 billion from its deficit, a relatively small amount of its multibillion-dollar mountain of red ink. It has done that through cuts to schools, colleges and Medi-Cal, and this month's decision to borrow nearly $2 billion to make this year's state pension payments. Harder choices are expected to be unveiled Wednesday.

The governor's own 2003-04 preliminary budget shows that total general fund revenues have been hovering in the $70 billion range for the last three years. Still, the state is carrying a deficit of about $10 billion, spending has soared to $80 billion this year and is on pace to reach nearly $90 billion next year.

Meanwhile, a number of other states have already made more progress by whacking away at spending.

According to an April 24 report by the National Conference of State Legislatures, with offices in Denver and Washington, D.C., 26 states propose slashing funding for universities, 21 are cutting K-12 education and at least half want to freeze employee wages and benefits and ax state jobs.

In addition, 27 states including California propose reining in soaring costs of health-care programs for the poor by eliminating optional benefits, freezing enrollment, raising the bar for eligibility and lowering doctor reimbursement rates.

Many states also are trying to close gaps at the other end of the fiscal equation.

Already, six states have raised cigarette taxes, while 14 more study the idea, the report said. Two states have hoisted taxes on beer and wine.

Meanwhile, 11 states propose raising sales taxes or expanding the types of products covered by existing sales taxes, the report stated. Two states that do not tax sales at the mall and department stores are considering joining that club.

Six states are looking to hike income taxes, either by increasing rates, adding upper brackets for the wealthy only or slashing exemptions. And at least 19 are examining a variety of fee increases, the report said.

In some highlights, Ohio passed a temporary 1 percent sales tax increase that will expire June 30, 2005, New Mexico increased its cigarette tax 70 cents a pack and Maryland closed corporate tax loopholes, while Idaho considers slapping higher "sin" taxes on cigarettes, tobacco, wine and beer and New York proposes eliminating the sales-tax exemption for clothes.

But given the gravity of the fiscal situation, it is surprising that not more states have increased taxes, said Nicole Casal, a spokeswoman for the national conference in Denver.

Most states are relying heavily on program cuts.

Missouri's Senate approved 15 percent across-the-board cuts, Hawaii cut state agencies' budgets 5 percent across the board, Indiana froze Medicaid spending at current levels, Minnesota is double-bunking prison inmates and Connecticut may save money by shipping 1,500 inmates to Virginia.

Higher education funding could be cut by 5 percent in Pennsylvania, 6 percent in Kansas and 6.75 percent in Michigan. And Louisiana axed 4,327 state jobs.

According to a May report by the Rockefeller Institute, the hard times have been hardest on those states, such as California, that depend heavily on personal income taxes. Income tax revenues tend to fluctuate wildly because they include volatile capital gains, which soared to unprecedented levels in the late 1990s and plummeted in 2001.

As a result, states are in their worst shape in decades even though the current recession ---- the 10th since World War II ---- "has so far been relatively mild by historical standards," the Rockefeller report states.

States' revenues overall dropped by 6 percent from fiscal 2001 to last year, said Jenny, the Rockefeller analyst.

Revenues are expected to rebound by 2 percent in this fiscal year, which runs through June, although "when adjusting for inflation and population growth that gain pretty much disappears," Jenny said.

Sales and corporate tax revenues are expected to increase this year, while income tax revenues remain flat.