A month ago, forcing Gov. Gray Davis to face a recall election appeared to be a long shot, at best, because recall organizers lacked money for a professional signature-gathering drive. Today, it's at least an even bet, thanks to an infusion of money from Republican Congressman Darrell Issa, who wants to succeed Davis.

Ted Costa, the anti-tax gadfly who launched the Davis recall, says he and others have at least a half-million signatures on paper and are collecting names at a clip that, if it continues, would reach the goal of nearly 900,000 valid names by early July.

That time frame is important because while Costa and other backers have until early September to submit recall petitions, if they're completed in the next month, a special recall election would almost certainly be held in the fall, thus giving the recall its maximum chance of succeeding. If, however, certification of the petitions is delayed until September or October, the recall probably would be combined with the March 2004 primary, and Davis' chances of surviving would improve.

Jockeying over the date of the election is one of the many factors that influence competing potential scenarios. Issa clearly wants a special election this fall, which would not only improve chances of the recall's winning but give him a chance to run as Davis' successor without imperiling his congressional seat. Costa, however, controls the flow of petitions as the lead sponsor and is less committed to a special election in the fall.

"I don't care what date it is," Costa said last week. "My job is to get the names in as soon as possible." But Costa added that he is shooting for an end to signature-gathering by early July because "it makes sense that this thing (an election) is in November."

Davis and Democratic Party leaders tended to dismiss the recall drive until the wealthy Issa became involved. In the last few weeks, an anti-recall coalition spearheaded by the state firefighters union has been formed, and a top Davis aide has been diverted to oversee his defense. The Davis team is interfering as much as possible with the recall signature drive by usurping professional signature-gatherers and mounting an unofficial counter-petition drive to confuse potential recall petition signers. And while Davis would prefer, of course, to kill the recall petition drive altogether, his secondary goal clearly is to shift a recall vote, if there is to be one, from a special election this fall to the March primary.

Capitol insiders say the governor, despite strenuous efforts to maintain an above-it-all public image, is obsessed with the potential ignominy of becoming the first California governor to be ousted in midterm. And it's become a big factor in Davis' negotiations with Republicans and fellow Democrats over the deficit-plagued state budget. Davis desperately needs a quick budget agreement -- no matter how fragile it may be -- to defuse the furor. But such an agreement takes at least some Republican votes, which means GOP leaders could string out the budget crisis through August and undercut Davis' standing even more.

While Issa clearly wants to run if the recall makes the ballot (voters would decide on a successor at the same election in which they decide Davis' fate), he probably would not be alone. Actor Arnold Schwarzenegger, former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan, state Sen. Tom McClintock and Bill Simon, whom Davis defeated last year, are among Republicans weighing a run. Private polls give an early edge to Simon, due to his high name identity.

Several Democrats who had hoped to run for governor in 2006, meanwhile, must decide whether to figuratively thumb their noses at Davis and run if the recall qualifies. Attorney General Bill Lockyer, Treasurer Phil Angelides, Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi and Controller Steve Westly are being forced to think about it as the recall drive picks up steam. Some Democrats believe that U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein would be the perfect alternative. There also are suspicions among Davis aides that Senate President Pro Tem John Burton harbors ambitions himself and may be aiding the recall by bucking Davis on several key budget issues.

The pot is simmering. In the next few weeks, we'll learn whether it will come to a full boil.