It wasn't supposed to be this way.
For Jeremy Goins, Denise Tobin and thousands of other would-be teachers who entered credential programs in the past year or two, the job prospects couldn't have looked better.

School districts were reducing class sizes, the state had a shortage of credentialed teachers and districts had the money to hire them. Between fall 1996 and spring 1998, California public schools put out a call for as many as 20,000 new teachers, according to the state Department of Education.
"The opportunities in California for K-12 teachers are as golden as our sunsets!" one out-of-state recruiting ad gushed.
But this year's newest crop of credentialed teachers is seeing a different picture, one shadowed by the state budget crisis, teacher layoffs and enormous uncertainty. Jobs are available in underperforming schools in inner cities such as Los Angeles, but they have dried up in the Sacramento region.

"It changed on a dime," said Tobin, 43, a Fair Oaks resident.

"It's frustrating because you spend so much time working toward your goal," said Goins, 23, who, along with Tobin, just completed California State University, Sacramento's credential program.

There are teaching jobs out there -- estimates are that California will need 195,000 new teachers during the next 10 years. But the main questions are what subject areas are needed and which districts in the state have the openings.

"I went to a CSUS job fair, and it was absolutely horrible. They were only looking for math and language teachers," said Ashley Wirth, who earned a credential to teach physical education. "Everybody said, 'You should have been here a year ago.' "

Others say inner-city school districts are heavily recruiting teachers. During an April job fair in Sacramento, the Los Angeles school district said it will hire 2,500 teachers for the fall.

But new teachers in the Sacramento region expressed reservations about leaving the area to work in low-performing, hard-to-staff schools.

"I could move to anywhere but Southern California. Unfortunately, that's where the jobs are," said Stephanie Ewing, who just completed her student teaching at Starr King Elementary School in Carmichael.

It's no longer a seller's market in the Sacramento region, said Stu Greenfield, superintendent of Washington Unified School District in West Sacramento.

Greenfield said his high-growth district has been forced to lay off 19 teachers and increase class sizes for grades 4 through 12. Hiring is limited to special education and speech therapy teachers.

Fast-growing Elk Grove Unified School District is hiring teachers, but mainly in special education, math and sciences.

San Juan Unified School District, with 88 schools, won't be hiring any teachers for the coming school year, except perhaps in special education.

A sampling of newly credentialed teachers in Sacramento indicates they are prepared to stick things out -- at least for the short term.

"I plan on scraping by for a year," said Goins. "This hasn't deterred me from being a teacher."

Goins, who has a credential to teach social science, will continue to work in a restaurant and coach junior varsity football at Casa Roble High School in Orangevale.

But he said he has looked at other options, including teaching English in South Korea, China or Africa.

Tobin, who worked as a credit manager and ran a day-care center before enrolling at CSUS, said she'll work as a substitute teacher this summer in two Sacramento school districts. She has sent out 20 job applications.

Such determination doesn't surprise Janie Low, director of teacher preparation and credentialing at CSUS.

"The overall mood of students is a little discouraged, but they keep going to recruitment fairs," Low said.

During the past semester, enrollment for the college's single-subject secondary school credential program increased 20 percent. Enrollment remained about the same for those seeking elementary school credentials.

"People still look at the teaching profession as an opportunity for stability," Low said. "There are also people saying they're looking for something fulfilling."

Low tells prospective teachers that there are pockets of teacher shortages in the state, but Sacramento isn't among them.

One reason, she said, is the large number of credential-granting institutions in the region, including CSUS; University of California, Davis; National University; University of Phoenix; Chapman University and Elk Grove Unified's Teacher Education Institute.

Jobs are available, she said, if teachers are willing to venture a little farther from Sacramento. Low said she recently spoke with two new teachers who landed jobs in Modesto and Manteca.

Would-be teachers also can look for work outside California, Low said. While in Hawaii recently, she said, she was surprised to hear that schools there were recruiting.

Margaret Gaston, executive director of the Center for the Future of Teaching and Learning, a Santa Cruz-based think tank, said she's concerned about the effect layoffs of first-and second-year teachers will have on the state's teacher supply pipeline.

Teacher contracts normally have a last-hired, first-fired provision. "We have heard that the most recent round of pink slips has had a sobering effect on new teachers," Gaston said.

She said several factors bode well for those pursuing teaching credentials. One is the increase of new students entering the state school system; another is the number of baby-boomer teachers expected to retire soon.

Wayne Johnson, president of the California Teachers Association, said demand for credentialed teachers will be felt mostly in urban school districts, which experience "a huge attrition rate for new employees."

"If you don't care where you'll go, you can find a job," he said.

The best indication of a statewide teacher shortage is the 50,000 people currently teaching without full credentials, he said.

Uncredentialed teachers are hired as temporary employees and school districts may replace them with credentialed teachers. But most uncredentialed teachers are teaching in hard-to-fill positions, or are teaching specialized subjects in math and science where there continue to be shortages, officials said.

Despite changes in the job market, a consultant with the state Commission on Teacher Credentialing said she expects the number of people enrolling in credential programs to actually increase in the coming year.

Marilyn Errett said that between the 2000-01 and the 2001-02 school years, the number of those receiving elementary, secondary or special education credentials in California increased from 23,926 to 29,536, a 23.4 percent jump.