A hoary political axiom holds that the Legislature can't enact a state budget until the Capitol is enveloped in 100-degree heat.

That condition was satisfied this week as a heat wave descended on Sacramento. But other elements of a fiscally workable, politically doable agreement on the deficit-saturated budget are missing. While both legislative houses have passed shells of a budget, infighting among majority Democrats, resistance to new taxes among minority Republicans, and Gov. Gray Davis' low standing inside and outside the Capitol loom as major, perhaps insurmountable roadblocks.

Chances of forging such an agreement may be growing dimmer. The drive to recall Davis appears to be picking up steam and has become intertwined with the budget, and while the new federal tax cut bill contains more than $2 billion in direct aid for California, it has fueled even more ideological rancor over how to use it.

The budgetary wheel-spinning, meanwhile, clouds California's chances of persuading banks to cough up the $11 billion the state must borrow this month just to refinance its short-term debt and keep its check-writing machines working.

Unless lenders are convinced that the Legislature and Davis can put the state's badly mangled finances in order, they may not advance the huge sum. And if the loan is not forthcoming, California may have to default on its short-term debt.

Davis knows that if the state's fiscal crisis continues, and deepens, it will fuel the drive for signatures on recall petitions. He desperately needs a quick budget agreement this month to persuade lenders to advance the $11 billion and take some of the steam out of the recall drive. But he can't even reach agreement with fellow Democrats -- Senate President Pro Tem John Burton is very stubbornly resisting Davis' spending cuts -- much less overcome Republican opposition to new taxes and demands for deeper reductions.

The much-revised budget that Davis unveiled in May was clearly designed to attract at least the few GOP votes that are needed for passage. Davis incorporated an approach advanced by Republicans to separate out the accumulated state deficit and finance it with a new bond issue. But while Republicans want the deficit bond to be repaid out of future spending cuts, Davis is proposing a half-cent boost in the sales tax -- and insisting that lenders are demanding the certainty of a new tax.

Whether lenders believe that the Davis scheme is a "template" for a final budget solution, or just another pipe dream, is the key to their willingness to make the $11 billion short-term loan. Republicans also know that if they refuse to play ball, the budget crisis will deepen and Davis' recall will become more likely, but some GOP leaders believe their party would fare better in the long run by leaving an unpopular governor in place.

When Davis turned to a bond to finance the deficit, he also used it, in effect, to ramp up spending on programs popular with Democrats and critical interest groups, such as public employee unions. And Democratic lawmakers went further, eliminating many of the health and welfare spending cuts Davis had proposed. They increased spending even more when the $2 billion-plus in federal aid became available, widening the partisan divide.

The deficit bond remains both the centerpiece of Davis' budget and the nucleus of a potential deal with Republicans, especially if he accepts a cap on future spending and some reforms in workers' compensation and other issues that are being raised by business leaders. And a deal could include a temporary sales tax as well as repeal of the "car tax" cut that was enacted several years ago. But such a deal would require Burton, Assembly Speaker Herb Wesson and other liberal legislators to agree to much deeper spending cuts and forgo other tax increases that they want -- and they're far from ready to travel that path.

What happens if a rational agreement isn't reached reasonably soon? Lenders would balk and the state could default on its debts. Davis, or Controller Steve Westly, or the courts might exercise emergency powers to allocate the state's shrinking revenues. And all of the politicians involved would find themselves with indelible stains on their careers.