| The state attorney general calls efforts to recall Gov.
Gray Davis "a profound threat to democracy." The lieutenant
governor calls it an "expensive perversion" of the recall process.
The state treasurer describes it as an "odious use" of the system.
One after another, at the urging of labor leaders who support the governor,
five of Davis' fellow Democratic officeholders said last week they don't
intend to run should a recall make the ballot.
On Saturday, U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein added her name to the list. "I
am not a candidate," said Feinstein, who appeared with Davis at ceremonies
to open a BART extension to San Francisco International Airport.
So if Davis faces a recall, who would the alternatives be? The possibilities
include some of the usual suspects, including the man who lost to Davis
last time. But the list of potential governors also includes the Terminator
and Meathead. And not everyone at the Capitol is convinced the Democrats
who bowed out this week would resist the temptation to run.
The recall drive has yet to collect hundreds of thousands of signatures
of voter support needed to qualify for what would be a history-making
election this fall or next spring.
Still, there is now a swarm of public figures with gubernatorial ambitions
who are hurriedly polling and strategizing, trying to decipher how dozens
of possible ballot scenarios might affect their odds should the window
of opportunity present itself.
"Once the recall qualifies, it will be the closest thing to political
anarchy you will ever see in this state or anywhere else," said Republican
strategist Dan Schnur. "Because there are no precedents. There are
no guidelines. And there are no rules of engagement. Every single candidate
is going to be making this up as he goes along."
Rep. Darrell Issa, the San Diego County Republican financing most of
the recall campaign, is an official candidate. The Green Party also has
a candidate. A Democrat has yet to declare an interest.
With a multimillionaire financing the recall try, proponents predict
they'll collect the legal minimum of 897,158 signatures by mid-July, six
weeks before the state's September deadline.
Should voters reject Davis, a replacement would be decided on the same
ballot, chosen by a plurality of the vote, with no runoff. The more candidates,
the smaller the percentage of the vote needed to win. That could give
an ultra-conservative or -liberal, an untested celebrity or an obscure
third-party candidate a window he or she might never have in a standard
election.
"You're going to have a menagerie of candidates who look at this
as a free shot," said Garry South, a longtime political strategist
for the governor now working for U.S. Sen. Joe Lieberman's presidential
campaign. "You could be the governor of California the next day,
when no one has ever heard of you, when you've never run statewide before."
In a recall election, Davis' best chance of retaining his job might be
a ballot that offers only Republican alternatives. But if enough voters
wanted him out, or if turnout skewed heavily to Republicans, that could
cost Democrats the governorship.
If a recall qualified in time for a special election in October or November,
the outcome could hinge on Republicans motivated to vote; Democrats could
benefit if a recall shared the March ballot with the presidential primary.
Democrats hope Republicans crowd the ballot; Republicans hope to keep
infighting down and the focus on Davis.
With those variables in mind, The Bee offers this compilation of possible
candidates:
Peter Camejo
The 63-year-old money manager, who drew 5 percent of the statewide vote
last year as the Green Party nominee for governor, announced last week
he plans to run again if a recall election is held. In last year's campaign,
he advocated expanding alternative energy, issuing driver's licenses to
undocumented immigrants, decriminalizing marijuana and instituting universal
health care and a minimum "living wage."
Darrell Issa
The 49-year-old congressman from San Diego County is the only announced
Republican candidate and, with $800,000 invested, is the driving force
behind Rescue California, the group gathering recall petition signatures.
A businessman worth at least $100 million, Issa can spend freely and quickly
on a campaign. He spent $10 million on an unsuccessful U.S. Senate bid
in 1998. Issa hopes his success in business sells to an electorate eager
to fix California's finances. In a general election, his record of opposing
abortion and supporting offshore oil drilling could limit his appeal in
California, where clear majorities feel otherwise. In a plurality recall,
though, support from conservative Republicans could be enough.
Bill Jones
The 54-year-old former secretary of state came in last in the three-way
Republican gubernatorial primary last year. His war chest was dwarfed
by those of his two rivals, and some supporters of President Bush were
reluctant to back him because he had supported Arizona Sen. John McCain
in the 2000 presidential primary. Jones was considering a recall candidacy
early on but may instead favor a run for U.S. Senate.
Tom McClintock
The 46-year-old state senator lost the race for state controller last
November in the general election but came closer to winning than any other
Republican running for statewide constitutional office. McClintock's anti-tax
crusades reduced car taxes and led to smog fee rebates in years past.
A conservative, he opposes abortion and supports gun owners' rights and
school voucher programs.
Rob Reiner
The 56-year-old movie director, who played Archie Bunker's son-in-law
"Meathead" in the 1970s sitcom "All in the Family,"
is already considering a 2006 run for governor. Reiner has been building
a liberal Democratic political résumé since 1998, when his
advocacy helped persuade voters to pass Proposition 10, levying a 50-cents-a-pack
cigarette tax to pay for early childhood education and health care programs.
He has been an ally to Davis, who named Reiner as chairman of the commission
established to implement Proposition 10. As with actor Arnold Schwarzenegger,
Reiner's longstanding celebrity and personal wealth might attract supporters
in the absence of officeholder experience.
Richard Riordan
The 73-year-old former mayor of Los Angeles was the favorite to win last
year's GOP gubernatorial primary until Gov. Davis' team interfered in
the race, accusing Riordan of flip-flopping on a range of issues. Wealthy
and supportive of abortion rights, Riordan has been part of the recall
underground since February but has done his talking out of public earshot.
Arnold Schwarzenegger
The hunky 55-year-old celebrity is a former Austrian bodybuilder who went
on to play lead roles in hit movies, including "Total Recall"
and the "Terminator" series. The Republican paved the way for
a 2006 gubernatorial run last year with a successful ballot measure, Proposition
49, to fund after-school programs. His fame, his support of gun control
and abortion rights and his connection to the Kennedy family via his marriage
to Maria Shriver could help him with Democrats but make him less likely
to be embraced by GOP conservatives. Democrats also intend to stir up
tales of womanizing in his past should he run. Schwarzenegger's advisers
expect him to make a decision after the July 2 premiere of "Terminator
3." In a recent speech to an anti-tax group, he joked: "This
is really embarrassing. I just forgot our state governor's name, but I
know that you will help me recall him."
Bill Simon
The 52-year-old investor was last year's GOP gubernatorial nominee, spending
more than $9 million of his own money to lose to Davis by five percentage
points. Simon has fantasized aloud about an I-told-you-so rematch, given
that one of the central arguments of his campaign last year was that Democrats
were not being fiscally responsible and the budget shortfall was worse
than Davis and others wanted to admit. Simon has yet to formally declare
a recall candidacy, however, and a series of novice campaign blunders
in last year's campaign -- including a debacle in which he falsely claimed
to have a photograph showing Davis illegally accepting campaign money
-- hurt his credibility with many Republican leaders. Considered the most
socially conservative candidate in last year's three-way primary, Simon
would compete with Issa for the same conservative base.
To Get Involved
* For information on how to support the recall, contact Rescue California
at (916) 443-6703 or www.rescuecalifornia.com, or contact People's Advocate
at (916) 482-6175 or www.davisrecall.com.
* For information on how to oppose the recall, contact Taxpayers Against
the Governor's Recall (formerly Taxpayers Against the Recall) at (916)
569-0898 or (213) 382-4111 or www.stoptherecall.com.
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