People from the Fresno area should dominate UC Merced's student body, whether the campus opens next year or later, the chancellor said Monday, but not unless students receive proper preparation, beginning in middle school at the latest.

The University of California at Merced's main issue with the San Joaquin Valley is whether there are enough qualified students, said Chancellor Carol Tomlinson-Keasey.

Last year, only 1,500 students from UC Merced's 12-county service area went to any UC campus.

"The number of students who qualify must increase dramatically," Tomlinson-Keasey said.

The Valley must nurture a college-going culture to attract more students in middle school and earlier toward higher education. More students must become academically qualified and aware of the opportunity to enter the University of California, she said.

Otherwise, spots at UC Merced will go to students from outside the Valley.

Tomlinson-Keasey mentioned UCLA, where the campus rejected 40,000 applicants. She said many of those students, plus others rejected by UC Berkeley, may choose UC Merced as an option.

UC Merced officials plan for enrollment to reach 25,000 students eventually, and they hope that half of the first 1,000 students come from the San Joaquin Valley. But that won't be an easy goal to reach with only 1,500 Valley students entering the other nine campuses last year combined.

High school students need to take and pass required courses and the Scholastic Aptitude Test to compete for spots at UC Merced, the chancellor said.