The state's economic plight has become so dire that University of California officials say they are forced to think about the unthinkable -- breaking UC's long-standing pledge to admit all eligible students in the state.

The prospect is one of the thorniest problems confronting newly designated UC President Robert Dynes, who leaves his job as UC San Diego's chancellor in October to take over the university's helm in the wake of the worst budget deficit in state history.

At a press conference last week, Dynes signaled which side he would take in a showdown between preserving the university's quality and upholding its accessibility obligations to California's top students.

"We are under severe budget pressure right now," Dynes told reporters Wednesday, the day the regents approved his appointment, "and the one thing I will not compromise is the quality of the university. If we need to adjust the growth, we will do that."

State policy for colleges and universities is laid out in the 1960 California Master Plan for Higher Education, which pledges UC to admit all those from the top eighth, or 12.5 percent, of the state's graduating high school seniors who want admission. UC also promises seats to the top 4 percent of each high school, and is committed to large numbers of graduate and transfer students as well.

The problem is that an increasing population of eligible seniors and other students is pushing enrollment up year by year, while state funding for UC is falling. Large program reductions and fee increases have been approved for next year, but many inside the university fear they won't be enough.

"I think the biggest tension is going to be whether the cuts are going to affect our ability to take increasing numbers of students," said Steve Olsen, vice chancellor for finance and budget for UCLA, the largest of the nine UC campuses.

Gov. Gray Davis' proposed budget calls for $300 million in cuts to UC. As a result, UC officials say, in the three years ending with the 2003-04 year, enrollment will have grown by 18 percent while state funding will have dropped 6 percent.

Worse, other budget proposals in the Legislature would cut even deeper, ranging from an additional $80 million to $400 million, UC officials say.

Layoffs are being planned, and although classes are being protected for the time being, other programs and services are being cut, including the UC library system, whose Berkeley library is ranked third in the nation behind Harvard and Yale. Some programs face reductions ranging from 20 to 50 percent.

Part of the response -- raising student fees -- faces opposition from students and others who want to keep the university accessible to those of limited income. Increases tentatively approved by the UC regents would boost annual fees this fall by $1,200 over a year ago, raising average undergraduate fees to $5,082, a boost that UC officials say would cover less than 20 percent of the expected shortfall.

UC officials say if the cuts are limited to those in the governor's budget, financial aid can be increased enough to cover the hike for the financially needy.

Meanwhile, a possible break with the admission guarantees is increasingly being raised. "That's the kind of talk I'm beginning to hear: 'I just don't see any way out other than to cap enrollment,' " said Tom Leonard, head of UC Berkeley's libaries.

Such a move would be "a dramatic step," said Gayle Binion, chair of UC's systemwide Academic Senate, the chief faculty body.

"I think people would be very critical of the university if we didn't meet the 12 1/2 percent promise," she said. Still, she added, "It's quite possible that it will be put on the table."

Hanan Eisenman, spokesman for current UC President Richard Atkinson, said, "Preserving student access to UC is very important to us," but added, "We're concerned that further deep budget cuts may impact our ability to accept all eligible students. It (curtailing enrollment) is only a possible solution. It's not something we want, and we would do everything we could to avoid it."

It depends on the budget finally adopted by the state and, in any case, would not affect those students already admitted for this fall, he said.

Some veterans of state budget battles say UC naturally is seeking political support to protect its funding and that further study is required to determine whether additional cuts would have to kill the Master Plan's promise to offer access to UC for all eligible students.

"I'm not sure they've shown the evidence," said Mac Taylor, state deputy legislative analyst. His office, for example, disagrees with the 7 percent UC enrollment growth projected in the governor's budget instead of the 4 percent increase in the state Senate budget proposal.

The picture is expected to become clearer in May when the California Postsecondary Education Commission is due to release a major study on UC eligibility and access.

"I think this (curtailing enrollment) is an issue that's certainly going to be raised in the next year or so if the state's financial fortunes continue to be as bleak as they appear to be," said Olsen of UCLA.

Dynes said he doesn't yet know if he will be the UC president who will have to compromise UC access for the sake of preserving excellence:

"I do plan, with people who understand these circumstances better than I do,

on sitting down and learning where the weak spots are and where we can optimize the number of students that come to the university so that we do not compromise either the quality or the accessibility.

"So the answer is, I have some learning to do."