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Office of the Chancellor / Public Affairs
Friday, June 13, 2003
 

Contra Costa Times 6-13-03

Groups consider options in recall
By Daniel Borenstein

 

The recall of Gov. Gray Davis has yet to qualify for the ballot, but politicians across the state are pondering what comes next.

"This is so great because there are so many permutations," said Bill Simon, the wealthy GOP businessman Davis defeated in November. Simon is seriously considering another bid for governor if the recall reaches voters.

He has lots of company.

"Are you the only one who is not a candidate in the recall election?" state Democratic Party Chairman Art Torres asked a caller Thursday. "This is the craziest season I've ever experienced. This is just crazy."

Welcome to the uncharted territory of recall politics. Never in California have we placed a governor's fate before the voters mid-term. Recall backers must collect 897,158 signatures by Sept. 2. They say the task will be completed much sooner.

If the recall qualifies for the ballot, voters will be asked two questions: Whether to toss Davis out and who should replace him.

On the second question, there will be no primary and no runoff. All gubernatorial hopefuls will be on the same ballot.

If Davis is recalled, the candidate with the most votes, no matter how small the total, wins. For many seeking a chance to run the state, this might be the best shot.

It's a free-for-all in which strategies are as plentiful as the candidates.

The key to victory in the replacement campaign will be self-control, said Republican strategist Dan Schnur. "If one party runs half a dozen candidates and the other party is able to impose the self-discipline to only run one, the party that has discipline will win."

Political self-interest could nix any hope of restraint on either side.

In that case, said state Sen. Tom McClintock, R-Thousand Oaks, while a smaller field helps a wealthy candidate, a larger one favors someone with a core base of support -- someone like McClintock. "I'm fairly confident that I have that base of support."

On the Republican side, the list of potential candidates also includes Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Vista, the car alarm magnate bankrolling most of the recall effort who has already launched a gubernatorial campaign, and actor Arnold Schwarzenegger.

"I honestly don't know," said Schwarzenegger's political consultant, George Gorton, when asked about the Terminator's possible bid. "He has said he wants to be governor some time. He has said this looks like a good opportunity. If he thinks he's the best person, he'll run."

While Simon, McClintock, Issa and Schwarzenegger jockey for position on the GOP side, Torres, the Democratic Party chairman, is trying desperately to keep his side's potential candidates in check.

The list is dominated by statewide officeholders including Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, Attorney General Bill Lockyer, Treasurer Phil Angelides and Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi.

Torres has asked all of them to pledge not to run. The best way to beat the recall is to beat the recall, not offer an alternative just in case, he said.

"The Democrats should put no one on the ballot because our candidate is the governor of California," Torres said.

It's a risky strategy that would require Democrats to unite behind a unpopular governor. Thus far, none of the potential candidates has agreed. But the bright spot, Torres said, trying to put the best light on the situation, is they also haven't said "no."

Democrats are conflicted. Some say they cannot campaign against the recall if they are putting up a replacement candidate. Others say they can't afford to put all their eggs in Davis' basket. They need an alternative just in case.

The often-mentioned Democratic safety valve is U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein.

"The Republican candidates don't have a clear front-runner as the Democrats do with Feinstein," said GOP consultant Kevin Spillane.

But Feinstein, who fought off a recall attempt when she was mayor of San Francisco, is more focused on defending Davis from this onslaught, said Bill Carrick, one of her top political advisers.

"She'll put most of her energy into trying to beat the recall. I don't think she'll run.