SACRAMENTO -- Fueled by nearly $650,000 in contributions from a multimillionaire congressman, the recall movement against Democratic Gov. Gray Davis appears to be gaining momentum by the day, giving urgency to a question that a few weeks ago was merely a parlor game for political insiders: Who will run to replace him?

One prominent possibility is Sen. Tom McClintock, the conservative from Thousand Oaks who last fall received the most votes of any Republican candidate on the California ballot.

In an interview this week, McClintock acknowledged the possibility of running but said it is far too soon and there are too many uncertainties to make a decision now.

"I'm neither discounting the idea nor entertaining it," McClintock said. "People think I'm being coy, but I'm not."

To qualify a recall for the ballot, organizers must collect the signatures of about 900,000 registered voters by early September. In order to ensure sufficient valid signatures, they will need well over a million. As of this week, they claimed to have gathered nearly 700,000.

Organizers are hoping to complete the task by early July, which would force a special recall election this fall. If the signature-gathering is delayed much beyond that, the recall issue would become part of the March primary ballot.

A recall vote would pose a two-part question: Should Davis be removed from office? If a majority decides he should be recalled, who should replace him?

If the recall were to succeed, then the candidate with the most votes would be elected to fill the remaining three years of Davis' term. Those rules create the possibility of a political free-for-all, with multiple candidates from both major parties potentially entering the fray, creating a situation in which someone could become governor of California with only a small percentage of the overall vote.

In such a scenario, McClintock would become a formidable candidate.

"I came out of the 2002 race with confidence that over the last 21 years of active involvement in public affairs I've developed a substantial core base of support that cannot be shaken," McClintock said.

Last fall, although outspent by a 5-to-1 ratio by Democrat Steve Westly, McClintock came within a hair's breadth of winning the contest for controller. It took weeks to declare a winner, with Westly ultimately prevailing by fewer than 17,000 votes, or three-tenths of a percent.

McClintock received nearly 3.3 million votes -- 100,000 more than were cast for Republican Bill Simon in the contest for governor.

"He's well-known and well-liked among the party activists," said Sherri Bebitch Jeffe, a political analyst at the University of Southern California.

As for the notion that he has a solid core of dependable voters, Jeffe said, "I think McClintock's got it right."

The attempt to recall Davis appeared to be sputtering until late April, when Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Vista, jumped in with an open checkbook. With $650,000 in contributions from Issa, supporters have now raised more than $1 million, giving them the resources to pay signature-gatherers and mail petitions directly to registered Republican voters.

Opinions differ on whether a recall election is merely likely at this point or whether it is inevitable.

If it does qualify for the ballot, Davis' future would be in considerable peril. Like nearly every incumbent governor in the nation, his stature among voters has plummeted during difficult economic times when states are struggling with budget deficits and raising taxes. A Public Policy Institute of California poll released Wednesday showed that 75 percent of likely voters disapprove of Davis' performance in office.

Even at that, Jeffe said she is not convinced that recall supporters are certain to qualify their measure. "Before Issa got involved, I put the odds for success at 30 percent," Jeffe said. "Yesterday, I put it at 40 percent. Today, 45 percent."

Even many Republicans remain skeptical about the wisdom of creating political tumult at a time when state lawmakers have been unable to agree on a budget and the state is facing the prospect of insolvency without one.

Former Assemblyman Brooks Firestone, who is hosting a statewide Republican conference in Santa Barbara County this weekend that will feature a talk by Issa, believes there is the potential for danger.

"A major political drill during this time of crisis concerns me, and I've told Darrell that," Firestone said.

Westly made the same point Wednesday as he announced the successful sale of $11 billion in short-term bonds that will provide the state with enough cash to pay off existing loans and pay its bills through the end of August.

"From my standpoint as the state's chief financial officer, this is not the time for a recall," Westly said.

"We need to have a CEO of this state who has his hands free to address this crisis."

Republican political analyst Dan Schnur, however, said he believes the question of whether there will be a recall is already settled. "It's a virtual certainty the recall will qualify," he said. "The biggest question now is what will be the date of the election."

The even bigger question is who will run.

Issa has already created a campaign committee and is considered a certain candidate. "I assume that Issa is not just going to say he's done his civic duty by helping to qualify the recall and then be done with it," McClintock said.

Actor Arnold Schwarznegger said in a magazine interview that he is interested in running, and the heavy involvement in the recall movement of top aides from his fall campaign indicate that Simon is thinking about running again for governor.

"Different combinations of candidates will produce different results," McClintock said. "I think everybody is going to make his own decision independent of what I or anyone else is going to do."

Under the rules, candidates would have little time to make up their minds once a recall election is called. The time frame could range from five to 15 days.

The decision whether to run could be particularly difficult for the leading Democrats who have already begun preparing campaigns for the regularly scheduled 2006 gubernatorial election -- Attorney General Bill Lockyer, Treasurer Phil Angelides and Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante.

To avoid an intramural war, some Democrats have made overtures to Sen. Dianne Feinstein in the hope of persuading her to become a consensus candidate should the recall qualify. The hope is that Feinstein, who will turn 70 this month, would agree to complete the term and then retire in 2006.

Schnur said the key to winning a recall election will be whether either party can limit its number of nominees to one. "The party that does the best job of disciplining itself will elect the next governor," he said.

Jeffe said such a possibility is unlikely. "There's always one guy who isn't going to listen to anybody," she said.