The good news for California's political leaders is that their collective stance on the budget pretty much reflects the sentiment of the people of this state. The bad news: That stance isn't going to solve the problem.

Californians, according to a new poll to be released today, don't want to cut their public services.

They're also not wild about tax increases. They might be willing to hold their noses and borrow to ease the pain. But they're not too happy about that, either.

This, in short, reflects the stalemate in the Capitol. So if Gov. Gray Davis and legislative leaders are looking for some bolt of wisdom from the electorate, they are not going to find it. They are going to have to dig down and find the solutions within themselves, and then sell them to the people. How novel.

The poll of 2,000 Californians by the Public Policy Institute of California, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percent, found that the state's residents are following the budget mess fairly closely but, by their own admission, still don't understand it very well. Welcome to the club.

By huge majorities, Californians oppose cutting just about every major program in the budget.

More than 80 percent oppose cutting public schools, 69 percent oppose cutting colleges and universities, 71 percent oppose cutting health and human services, and 61 percent oppose cutting transportation.

The only significant program they are willing to cut is the prisons, by a margin of 55 percent to 39 percent. That's notable because the prisons are the program most off-limits in the Capitol, due to the immense power of the prison guard union and a sense, perhaps misplaced, that the public sees the lock-ups as part of a tough-on-crime ethic. But even if the Legislature took the public's lead on this issue, there isn't much to cut. Correctional programs make up just 7 percent of the state's general fund.

On the revenue side, Californians seem more receptive to change, but hardly enthusiastic.

Fifty-eight percent oppose raising the car tax, or vehicle license fee; 52 percent oppose raising sales taxes; and by a 48 percent to 45 percent edge, the survey respondents opposed increasing income taxes on the wealthy. These are the three main elements of the $8 billion in new taxes Davis has proposed for the coming year.

The poll did find strong support (71 percent to 28 percent) for raising the cigarette tax, and 57 percent said it would be a good idea to tax all goods sold over the Internet. Perhaps most significant, and surprising, 57 percent said they would support amending California's Proposition 13 property-tax limitation by taxing commercial property at market value. Currently, all property is assessed at the time of sale and those assessments increase by no more than 2 percent a year, regardless of market value.

What about borrowing? It's almost certain now that the state will try to sell $11 billion in bonds to finance the current deficit over the next five years. The only debate is about how that money will be repaid.

Democrats want to increase the sales tax a half-cent on the dollar and use the new money to retire the bonds. Republicans want to do it out of current revenues. Either way, the state would still have a $20 billion gap between spending and revenues in the coming year.

The public, according to this poll, generally opposes borrowing, by a 61 percent to 33 percent margin. But when asked specifically about both plans, they leaned toward the Republicans. Repaying the bonds without a tax increase was favored by a 54 percent to 34 percent margin. Raising taxes to retire the deficit was supported more narrowly, by a 50 percent to 41 percent edge.

"The public realizes that this is a huge problem and there are not any easy solutions," said Mark Baldassare, who directed the poll. "They don't like the notion of taxes, but they like the notion of cuts even less. Maybe they are looking for leadership on this. Maybe they are willing to wait a little longer and see something sensible come out of it."

Indeed, while the poll offers little short-term guidance to policy-makers, some long-range reforms being kicked around in the Capitol did find favor. Seventy percent support a new state spending limit, and 59 percent support setting aside money each year for public works projects. The idea of lowering the two-thirds vote requirement for passing a budget was supported narrowly, by a 46 percent to 43 percent edge.

The strong backing for schools -- 67 percent said they'd be willing to pay higher taxes to support them -- combined with the openness toward raising commercial property taxes might lead to something. Look for a measure on the ballot next year that would raise those taxes and dedicate the money to education.

But that won't do anything to help Davis and the Legislature this summer. To balance the budget, the state's leaders are going to have to cut spending or raise taxes, or both. They are going to have to do something, in other words, that the voters don't want them to do.

Which is exactly why that's not likely to happen.