State officials will open bids today for $11 billion in short-term loans to ease a severe cash crunch, but while the money will forestall defaults on other loans coming due this month, it may delay resolution of California's monumental budget crisis for many more weeks.

Without the "revenue anticipation warrants" (RAWs) that Controller Steve Westly is floating, he and Treasurer Phil Angelides would not have enough cash to retire "revenue anticipation notes" (RANs) that fall due this month, and the state probably would default. But the political effect of the refinancing is to remove some of the financial pressure to have a budget in place when the new fiscal year begins on July 1.

The loan rollover will leave the state with perhaps two months of operating cash, which means Westly can keep writing checks if -- as is almost certain -- the state is still without a budget on July 1. And it sets up a climactic confluence of financial and political pressures over the budget in early September, to wit:

* The state will run out of money around Sept. 1 and without a budget cannot float any more short-term loans to keep its check-writing machines operating.

* The 2003 legislative session is scheduled to end on Sept. 12 and lawmakers, as demonstrated last year, are reluctant to extend a budget crisis beyond their adjournment date.

* The petitions aimed at placing a recall of Gov. Gray Davis on the ballot must be submitted to election officials no later than Sept. 2.

That doesn't mean that a budget deal will be cut in September, of course. Many Capitol handicappers believe that with the highly polarized situation in the Legislature -- Democrats bent on raising taxes by billions of dollars and Republicans adamantly opposed -- it could be many months before a budget is in place.

Nor is there any evident "road map" -- to use a currently popular term -- to a budget solution. Public and private polls show that the approval ratings for Davis and the Legislature among voters have plummeted to record-low levels -- scarcely over 20 percent in some surveys -- and those same polls indicate that voters are reluctant to accept either deep spending cuts, especially in education, or massive new taxes.

It is the perfect political storm and the longer it rages, the more alienated Californians become and the more willing they become to support the Davis recall as the only available means of registering their disgust with the prevailing political situation. There's little doubt now that the recall petition signature drive, largely financed by Republican Congressman Darrell Issa, will succeed in placing Davis' fate in the hands of voters; the only question in political circles is whether the recall will be decided at a special election in the fall or at the March 2004 primary.

The governor desperately needs a quick resolution of the budget crisis to defuse the recall drive, but by helping Westly borrow the $11 billion in RAW money, he may be delaying a budget deal. If the state were to default on its RANs this month, it would drive the budget crisis home in a dramatic way and bring much more pressure on Capitol politicians to compromise -- although it would also damage the state's much-battered credit rating even further.

Davis is not inclined toward making such bold moves, however. He always plays for time, hoping that crises resolve themselves without exposing him to political risk, and ignores the oft-demonstrated truism of war and politics that defensive passivity creates more risk. That's why President Bush's approval ratings in California -- a state he lost by 1.3 million votes in 2000 -- are nearly three times as high as Davis' marks, even though Democrats are a majority of voters. Voters appreciate a politician who at least tries to lead and disparage a passive one.

The Bush-like move for Davis would have been to put forth a straightforward plan to handle both the accumulated deficit and future shortfalls -- no matter which interest groups it angered -- refuse to borrow more money without a budget, and undertake a personal campaign to bring public pressure on the Legislature to act.

Davis has refused to take any of those steps, which explains why Californians consider him to be a weak and ineffectual governor.