It's dead certain that Gray Davis will become the first governor in California history to face a recall election -- if he doesn't resign within the next few weeks -- and only slightly less certain that the election will be staged this fall, thus increasing chances that he will be dumped.

The prospect of a recall has become the nation's hottest political story, generating a Gold Rush of Washington-and New York-based political journalists to the left coast and spawning an endless stream of speculative scenarios:

* Would a special recall election be held in the fall or can Davis and Democrats stall the vote until next March's presidential primary, when his chances of survival would increase?

* Which Republicans other than recall financier Darrell Issa, such as action movie star Arnold Schwarzenegger, will offer themselves as replacements, and would a multitude of GOP hopefuls cloud the recall's chances of succeeding?

* Will major Democratic figures honor their semifirm pledges not to place their names on the recall ballot as alternatives to Davis? Or will one -- Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, for example -- break ranks and force other Democrats to follow suit?

* Would Davis actually face a vote or resign and allow Bustamante to succeed him? If Davis quits before the recall petitions are certified and the election called, that would be the end of the game and Bustamante would become governor, but if he resigns after the election is set, the vote would still take place and if Davis is recalled in absentia, the top vote-getter would still become governor.

None of this speculative feeding frenzy, however, takes into account the one factor that should be uppermost: What's best for the state during this time of unprecedented social, economic and political uncertainty? California faces enormously daunting public policy issues: a huge budget deficit, a plummeting credit rating, a sluggish economy, and crises in worker's compensation, housing, water, land use and transportation. We desperately need political stability and executive competence over the next few years.

Clearly, Davis has lost the confidence of Californians, as numerous public opinion surveys have confirmed. Even two-thirds of labor union members, supposedly Davis' strongest support group, disapprove of his performance, according to a new Los Angeles Times poll.

Even if Davis survives a recall by demonizing his Republican foes, his own standing will not be enhanced. He will still be a very lame-duck governor who lacks the public credibility, or the demonstrated ability, to lead. But if he's ousted and replaced by a Republican, we will have years of political gridlock while the underlying crises continue to fester. A GOP governor would thwart a Legislature dominated by liberal Democrats, but they would checkmate him as well.

Details of the Times poll provide a clue to the best outcome for California: a caretaker governor. The poll indicates that former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan, an ideological centrist, is the leading Republican candidate while U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, another centrist former big-city mayor, leads all potential replacements in popularity. Riordan reportedly is telling political insiders that if he does run, it will be with the declared intention of serving just the three years remaining in Davis' term, and not running for re-election in 2006.

If Republicans agreed to have Riordan as their sole replacement candidate and Democrats did the same with Feinstein, and each pledged to serve just three years, the state would be assured of having an experienced and respected manager at the helm if voters ousted Davis. And it would relieve all of the would-be governors in both parties of rolling the dice on a recall election run a few months hence. They could continue to maneuver for 2006, when Californians could choose another governor with a clean slate. Feinstein could even appoint a caretaker replacement in the Senate for the remainder of her term and run again for the Senate in 2006.

It may not be likely to happen in the ego-and ideology-driven political cauldron of contemporary California politics, but it would be the mature and responsible response, and one that best served the state's need for stability and competence.