The drive to recall Gov. Gray Davis is hurtling toward the ballot, creating the nation's wildest political spectacle since the 2000 presidential election standoff in Florida.

The recall is not only hot political news, it is hot entertainment news, headlined by the prospect of "Terminator 4: The Politician."

Propelled by public fury over the state's budget crisis – and promoted heavily through conservative talk radio and the Internet – the dump-Davis movement has become a populist prairie fire unseen since the Proposition 13 tax revolt of 1978.

Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Vista, who has pumped $1.15 million of his own money into the recall petition campaign, announced at a Fourth of July rally in Newport Beach that more than 1 million signatures have been submitted to county election officials throughout California.

County registrars report a sharp upsurge in petition activity in recent weeks, bringing the official target of 897,158 valid signatures within reach. Sally McPherson, San Diego County's registrar of voters, said more than 86 percent of the signatures checked were found to be valid – an unusually high rate.

Recall sponsors say they will have submitted more than 1.2 million signatures by their self-imposed Friday deadline, enough to require a gubernatorial recall election this fall.

All the while, bodybuilder-turned-actor Arnold Schwarzenegger is traveling the world talking himself up as a potential Republican candidate for governor as he promotes his latest action movie, "Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines."

"It certainly is creating a political circus maxima out here, which is analogous to what took place in Florida at the end of 2000," said former Al Gore spokesman Chris Lehane, who is now advising Davis.

Polls show Californians to be sharply divided over the wisdom of a recall election, but support is growing.

A Los Angeles Times poll conducted last week showed those surveyed favoring Davis' removal 51 percent to 42 percent. In March, the same survey showed only 39 percent backing the recall.

Davis' future is only half of the equation. The other half – who would replace him – remains a muddle.

One thing seems certain: It would be a free-for-all. All the would-be successors, regardless of party, would be listed on the same ballot. If a majority voted to boot Davis from office, whichever candidate got the most votes would become governor.

"It's impossible to even calculate the variety of scenarios that could occur," said Republican strategist Kevin Spillane. "Are any Democrats going to file in the successor election? Is Schwarzenegger going to run? Is (Bill) Simon going to run? Is someone that we haven't thought of?"

In a gesture of partisan solidarity, all of California's statewide elected officials – all Democrats like Davis – have declared they will not be candidates for governor if the recall qualifies for the ballot.

"There will be a Democrat on the ballot: Gray Davis," said Art Torres, chairman of the California Democratic Party.

Last week, Peter Camejo, the 2002 Green Party nominee for governor, announced he would run to give Democrats dissatisfied with Davis an option.

Still, clearing the recall field of Democrats would be an enormous gamble, and few would be surprised if the united front crumbles once an election is called.

"I think it's absolutely the right strategy for now," said Democratic political consultant Darry Sragow. "I don't believe for a second it will hold if in fact the recall qualifies and there is pretty clear evidence in terms of opinion research that the recall is likely to succeed."

Democrats, who once dismissed the recall as a lark, are now in full battle mode, adopting Florida-style rhetoric to portray the recall as the handiwork of right-wing extremists and sore losers.

Yesterday, they announced that an anti-recall campaign had gained 1.1 million signatures.

"The extremists behind the recall want to try to take through the back door what they couldn't win fair and square," said anti-recall campaign manager Steve Smith. "These Californians are telling them loud and clear: You can't steal California's election."

Seeking to mobilize Democratic constituencies, recall opponents have begun holding weekly news conferences to attack Issa's congressional voting record on issues such as abortion and gun control.

They also have been circulating documentation of a succession of youthful brushes with the law by the wealthy former car alarm entrepreneur.

"Issa makes Newt Gingrich look moderate," Lehane said. "He really does provide a face for the recall, and it's not a pretty face. The recall is increasingly becoming identified with someone who holds some outrageous views and has a very questionable background."

Issa professes to be unconcerned. "Gray Davis is desperate because he cannot – cannot – provide any answers as to his own failures," he said after greeting petition circulators at the San Diego County Fair recently.

Some Republicans fear that while Issa may have the financial wherewithal to make the recall a reality, he will emerge too badly battered to be a competitive candidate.

"Issa is like the guy during the Civil War that marched at the front of the regiment holding the banner," said one Republican strategist. "Everyone appreciates what he's done, but he gets so full of bullet holes that he doesn't have much of an impact on the fight."

For now, Issa is the only announced Republican successor candidate; other Republican gubernatorial hopefuls appear to be content to let him take all of the bullets until a recall election is official.

Simon, the 2002 Republican nominee for governor, is expected to run again even though many Republicans blame his lackluster campaign for Davis' re-election.

Another possible Republican contender is state Sen. Tom McClintock of Thousand Oaks, whose crusade against the motor vehicle license fee has made him a favorite on the talk radio circuit.

And then there's Schwarzenegger.

"We don't know whether he's going to run or not, but I'm pretty sure that he is," said political adviser George Gorton. "He seems to be pretty interested in it and pretty excited about it."

There is much speculation that Schwarzenegger's career path may be determined by the box office receipts from "Terminator 3."

"Ask me again after the July 4 weekend grosses come in," said Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, a political analyst at the University of Southern California. "If 'Terminator 3' rakes in $100 million, do you think he can or will be allowed to walk away from that? I don't think so. If, on the other hand, it tubes, he may decide it's time to gracefully find another career."

At 55, Schwarzenegger presumably has more movies left in him. But there's no conventional calculation of how many productive years lie ahead for an action hero.

"I don't see how he can make 'Terminator 22: The Revenge of the Nursing Home,' " Jeffe said.

Gorton said Schwarzenegger's star power and can-do image will be enough to carry him through an abbreviated recall campaign.

"Arnold is the message," Gorton said. "He comes across so well with such charisma that people are moved to like him."

That won't cut it, said Ken Khachigian, Issa's campaign manager.

Schwarzenegger is described as a fiscal conservative and a social liberal, but voters are going to want to know more, Khachigian said.

"If he's in the Central Valley, he's going to be asked about agriculture," Khachigian said. "If he's in Imperial, he'll get asked about water. If he's in Orange County, he'll be asked about the El Toro air base. He may have full and complete positions on all those things, but it's no longer just yukking it up on 'Late Night with Jay Leno.' "