Under pressure from unions, politicians, lawyers and more than 172,000 California teen-agers who haven't passed a basic skills test to graduate next year, the state's education board is poised this week to bend on what was supposed to be the biggest ultimatum in the state's public school history: the California High School Exit Exam.

The exam, a basic math and English test based largely on eighth- and ninth-grade material, was once touted by lawmakers and Gov. Gray Davis as a way to boost the value of a California high school diploma. Under a 2000 state law, all students in the class of 2004 ---- next year's senior class --- get at least seven chances to pass the exam to graduate.

But fewer than half of the students in the state's class of 2004 ---- including more than 4,200 in Southwest Riverside and North San Diego counties --- have passed the test, and the State Board of Education on Wednesday will consider backing off the ultimatum so failing students can graduate.

A majority of state board members have said publicly they will support the delay. It's a move that would let incoming seniors off the hook next year, making this year's incoming sophomores the first class likely to be required to pass.

Testing opponents, including teachers unions and advocacy groups for low-income and minority students, call the delay a fair move that would give schools and students more time to prepare for the high-stakes tests.

But local educators say a delay would take the bite out of a threat that has forced teachers, students and parents to pay close attention to high school basics for the first time in decades.

"For two years, I have been telling my students that I'm not signing any diplomas until they pass that test, and they've finally started taking that signature seriously," said Oceanside High School principal Kimo Marquardt, whose school has the lowest exit exam passing rates of any major high school in North San Diego County.

"Now with students seeing all over the news that they won't have to pass at all, those words don't have much steam. I can talk up the test all I want with the kids, but without the law to back me up, it's going to be a hard sell."

Softening the threat

But selling educators, state reviewers and the public on a test that will render half of California's high school seniors diploma-less has been even tougher, and the exam's loudest champions have retreated from the "no pass, no diploma" stance of prior years.

State Superintendent of Public Instruction Jack O'Connell, who wrote the exit exam law while he was a state senator and championed student accountability during his campaign in 2002, has recommended delaying the consequences of the exam until the class of 2006.

Gov. Gray Davis, who also has vocally supported the test despite harsh opposition by teachers unions that helped get him elected, said last month he will leave the decision on the test's consequences up to the state board of education.

And state legislators who passed the law requiring the test are working on another bill that would delay the test's impacts on the remote chance that the board decides to stick to the test's 2004 deadline.

Opposition abounds

Much of that opposition comes from teachers unions that oppose high-stakes testing and advocacy groups that have sued at least one other state trying to implement a high school exit exam.

In Massachusetts, where students were required to pass an exit exam to graduate this year, an advocacy group sued over the test, saying schools there had failed to prepare low-income and minority students for the exam.

The group, called Multicultural Education, Training and Advocacy, is based in San Francisco. It had not publicly threatened a lawsuit against the state, but lawyers there vocally oppose basing graduation eligibility on an exit exam.

"Kids should not be denied a diploma based on one test," said META lawyer Mary Hernandez, who is based in Encinitas. Hernandez blamed low passing rates on the school system and the state board, not on failing students.

"The state needs to be held accountable at the top for educating its students before it starts trying to hold kids accountable for things they haven't been taught," she said.

Most lawmakers and other advocates pushing the delay cite an independent report released in May that found schools had not adequately prepared some students for the demands of the test.

"The central issue is whether students have been given the opportunity to learn what's being asked of them on the test," said Phil Garcia, deputy executive director for the state board of education.

"What we know is that the exit exam has been a major force for change," Garcia said. "What we don't know whether students in the class of 2004 were given ample opportunity to succeed on the test."

The report found that students in the class of 2005 were more prepared for the test and predicted that later classes would be even more prepared.

Statewide scores seem to back up the assertion that more students will pass in future years. According to state statistics, 60 percent of students in the class of 2005 passed the math section of the test on the first try, compared to 44 percent of students in the class of 2004.

How it will work

If the impact of the test is delayed until 2006, the state will cancel the fall and winter rounds of the exam, said California Department of Education assessment coordinator Jan Chladek. Testing will begin again in February, when next year's sophomores have completed most of their 10th-grade year, she said.

If the board delays the exam's consequences until 2005, testing would go on as planned for this year's junior class. If the delay stretches to the class of 2007, testing may cease until February of 2005, she said.

But delaying the exam's impact isn't as simple as canceling a few tests.

The state's school rankings and new federal education laws require that exit exam passing rates make up part of each high school's rankings, and the state may have to adjust its rating system if the delay drags on, Chladek said.

Several districts want to continue using the test to identify low-scoring students even if the state drops the test as a diploma requirement. If the delay stops the state from formally giving the test, the Department of Education plans to release some form of the test this fall for districts to use for their own purposes, Chladek said.

"Delaying the test is up to the board," she said. "We are still in the process of figuring out how that delay might work."