Gray Davis, even more than most politicians, loathes situations whose outcome he cannot predict and/or fully control, but now finds himself swimming in uncertainty, his fate at the mercy of forces that he can only marginally influence.

The largest unknown, of course, is whether California voters will decide 10 weeks hence to make Davis the first California governor ever to be dumped from office in midterm. But that, in turn, will hinge on a number of other factors that are still unsettled.

Two that loomed over the Capitol on Monday were the fate of a patchwork state budget that cleared the Senate late Sunday but faced an uncertain fate in the Assembly, and the lineup of would-be successors who will appear on the ballot as voters are deciding whether to recall Davis on Oct. 7.

The budget was Davis' most immediate problem Monday. His popularity plummeted into the low 20 percent range when he revealed last December, a month after winning a narrow re-election, that the state faced a $30 billion-plus deficit. Critics accused him of hiding the extent of the state's fiscal problems and launched the recall petition drive that culminated last week in setting an Oct. 7 election.

Polls indicate that "solving" the budget crisis, however that might be defined, is critical to Davis' survival chances. Voters may be angry at all Capitol politicians for the deficit and the budget stalemate, but the only one they can punish is Davis, so he is desperate to get something labeled "budget" placed on his desk.

The Senate's two partisan leaders, President Pro Tem John Burton and Republican leader Jim Brulte, personally negotiated a compromise that relies heavily on multibillion-dollar loans and leaves the state still facing deficits in future years, insisting that it was the best that could be achieved this year. But the budget's fate in the more ideologically divided, less disciplined Assembly was very uncertain.

Assembly Speaker Herb Wesson and Davis went through the Democratic caucus member by member, but after hours of private meetings, it was not even certain that the budget would be brought up for a vote Monday night.

Davis' unpopularity, plus Wesson's somewhat tenuous hold on his position, limited their ability to cajole Democrats into accepting a budget that many dislike on liberal principle. Since it contains none of the income, sales or cigarette taxes that Democrats had been trumpeting for months, many see it, accurately, as a huge tactical win for no-new-taxes Republicans.

As Davis wonders whether voters will throw him out of office, Wesson is worried that his fellow Democrats may remove him from the speakership. It's no secret in the Capitol that Assemblyman Joe Nation, D-San Rafael, is close to having enough Democratic votes to bump Wesson -- a factor that limits Wesson's ability to twist arms on the budget.

Davis and everyone else in the Capitol, meanwhile, are wondering about the lineup of Republicans who will offer themselves as replacements during the recall election. Monday's preoccupation was whether actor Arnold Schwarzenegger would bring his larger-than-life persona and unlimited campaign war chest into the fray.

Schwarzenegger's political advisers had hinted for days that he was ready to make a move into the race, but they pulled back last week as the recall election became a reality, and they were forced Monday to deny media reports that he had finally decided not to make the run.

"These reports are incorrect," a midday Schwarzenegger statement said. "Arnold spent the weekend continuing his due diligence regarding a possible run. He has made no decision at this time. He will continue to weigh the pros and cons with his family and will continue to seek the counsel of supporters and colleagues. When Arnold has made his decision, we will announce it to the media."

If Schwarzenegger doesn't run -- and his obvious indecision makes that option more likely -- former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan could step in as the moderate candidate, perhaps with Schwarzenegger's campaign team. And the polls indicate that he may be a more formidable foe for Davis.

The plot thickens. The uncertainties outweigh the certainties. Everyone is waiting for something to happen.