Sure, the recall election of Gov. Gray Davis will cost California taxpayers an estimated $30 million. But the contest will generate revenue, too, and leave a tidy windfall for television stations, newspapers, consultants and others that feed off the electoral process.

The economic impact won't rival last year's $100 million gubernatorial election, however. With the recall set for Oct. 7, the quick-and-dirty nature of the campaign will almost certainly limit the amount of money spent.

Still, the recall election will hardly be small potatoes. If multiple Republicans challenge Davis, the spending could easily run into the tens of millions of dollars.
So far, only one Republican has committed to the race, millionaire Rep. Darrell Issa. But others could join in, including former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan, actor Arnold Schwarzenegger, last year's GOP gubernatorial nominee Bill Simon and state Sen. Tom McClintock of Simi Valley.

"You'll have three or four Republican candidates spending money separately, and you'll have Gray Davis and the Democrats spending money," said Bruce Cain, director of the Institute of Governmental Studies at the University of California, Berkeley. "I've got to believe we're talking $40 (million) or $50 million."

Added David Lesher, editor of the California Journal, the Sacramento political magazine: "The huge question will be whether these other millionaires -- Riordan, Schwarzenegger, Simon -- get into it. That will double or triple the amount of money that this is going to cost."

That means money for polling, advertising, consulting and other political cottage industries. Exactly how the money will be spent is something the political strategists are still deciding.

Ordinarily a statewide election in California means TV, TV and more TV. Davis spent about $40 million on television advertising last year, or about two-thirds of his campaign budget, according to reports filed with the secretary of state's office.

Don't expect as much TV time for the recall. "This is only two months; by definition there's going to be less money spent," said Paul Maslin, whose Oakland-based consulting firm conducts public opinion polls for Davis. Maslin's firm was paid more than $1.4 million by the governor's campaign last year.

Davis may well take to the air again to fight the recall, but with turnout expected to be light, his allies in organized labor plan a grass-roots campaign, with a lot of telephoning and door-knocking to identify voters likely to support the governor.

"You're going to see a grass-roots campaign because people need to be motivated to get out and vote, and you don't motivate people by television," said Art Pulaski, executive secretary-treasurer of the California Labor Federation. The federation expects to spend $3 million to $4 million fighting the recall.

On the other hand, one of the pro-recall advocates says the tight schedule means his group will hit the TV airwaves hard.

"Our budget is $15 million, and a lot of that's on television," said Chris Wysocki, spokesman for Recall California. "The only way to reach people in a quick manner is to go up on the air."

Ordinarily, Wysocki's declaration would have TV stations salivating. But while there probably will be plenty of political ads this time as well, they won't represent a lot of new dollars for broadcasters. That's because the campaigns will start late and much of the commercial air time is spoken for already, television executives said.

To run political ads, broadcasters often will have to reschedule or bump some regular commercials off the air, partially offsetting the influx of political money. And because politicians qualify for discounts, a flurry of ads for candidates could actually take dollars out of broadcasters' pockets. ("Issue" ads, like those urging a recall but not arguing for a particular candidate, don't receive the discount.)

Indeed, several political and media insiders said newspapers could gain more from an expensive recall campaign than broadcasters would, an odd twist in this electronic age.

"You guys can print more pages, but I have a limited inventory (of commercial time)," said a Sacramento TV executive who asked to remain anonymous.

Stephen Bernard, The Sacramento Bee's vice president of advertising, said the paper couldn't predict how much ad revenue the recall would generate. Executives at the state's two largest papers, the Los Angeles Times and the San Francisco Chronicle, did not return calls.

A few canny entrepreneurs already are trying to cash in on the recall.

Ray Lindstrom, a Laughlin, Nev., businessman, has sold about 100 "Recall Gray Davis, California's Worst Governor" wristwatches on eBay, the online auction site, and through his store near Las Vegas for about $10 apiece.

Lindstrom also produced watches promoting Davis as a presidential candidate in 2004. "I'm sorry to say we haven't sold one of those," he said.

Also on eBay, a San Diego computer engineer named Jonas Lazo and some friends were peddling a group of Internet domains with names like Hasta-LaVistaDavis.com -- a reference to Schwarzenegger's signature movie line. The minimum bid, as set by Lazo and friends: $4,500. There were no bids as of Friday afternoon.

"If we don't sell it, one of our friends is planning on doing T-shirts and mugs with that theme," Lazo said.