California Gov. Gray Davis (D) will face a special recall election this fall, after the state's top elections officer certified tonight that the signatures of more than 1.3 million voters who signed petitions were valid. This marks only the second time in U.S. history that citizens have won the chance to oust a sitting governor.
The bland Davis, already one of the most unpopular leaders in the nation, previously disparaged the recall activists as "losers." Today, he renewed his vow to fight to the very end against what he called "a hostile takeover by the right."
The announcement tonight by California Secretary of State Kevin Shelley that the recall election will be held in 60 to 80 days capped a remarkable political saga -- and signals a major embarrassment for the Democrats and Davis, who was once considered a likely contender for the White House.
Just a few months ago, most political handicappers thought the recall effort had little chance of getting on the ballot, but the movement to remove Davis tapped into deep unhappiness among voters who have watched in shock and awe as the state stumbled through a self-made energy crisis and is now essentially broke and saddled with an unprecedented $38 billion budget shortfall.
Into this breach come Republicans such as film actor Arnold Schwarzenegger, who is seriously considering offering himself as a Davis successor.
California, already on the cutting edge for its embrace of voter initiatives, is making history again. Since the recall option was made law in 1911, there have been 31 failed attempts to get one on the ballot in California.
The attempt to haul Davis before voters less than a year after he was narrowly elected to a second term also appeared doomed until Rep. Darrell Issa (R), a car-alarm impresario from suburban San Diego, put up $1.7 million of his own money to employ professional signature-gatherers to get ink on petitions. Shelley confirmed tonight that Issa's troops had gathered in excess of 1.3 million valid signatures; they needed 897,158 to qualify the recall for the ballot.
Issa, who also wants to replace Davis, tonight called the recall "a landmark for California" and blamed Davis for the state's budget shortfall.
Other critics have assailed Davis for what they call gross mismanagement of the state's energy and fiscal affairs.
Now that Shelley has certified that there are enough valid signatures to mount a recall, the baton is passed to Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante (D). On Thursday, he is expected to set a date for the election, which must be held within 60 to 80 days.
But confusion reigned today after Bustamante said he will not issue a call for a two-part ballot that would ask first whether Davis should be recalled and second who should replace him if he is ousted.
Instead, Bustamante said he will leave the question of how to choose a possible Davis successor to an independent panel and the California Supreme Court's reading of the state constitution.
If the question goes before the high court, it could rule that if Davis is removed by voters, his successor would automatically be Bustamante. That would inevitably be challenged by GOP hopefuls who want to be on the ballot.
Or the court could order the fall ballot to include a list of candidates for Davis's job if he is recalled. That is the ballot that everyone has been expecting to see.
Bustamante said he will leave the question to the Commission on the Governorship. This obscure commission has never been empaneled, and its chairman, state Senate President Pro Tem John Burton (D), said, "Up until three days ago, I didn't know there was such a thing."
Burton said today that he was seeking legal advice on the commission's role but that it was his initial impression that the panel is consulted only when there is "a vacancy" in office -- if a governor becomes incapacitated, for example.
The Bustamante move, which his spokesman said was supported by lawyers in the California secretary of state's office, adds greater uncertainty to a process that is fraught with challenges.
County election officials have warned that holding a special election in so short a time (usually they have about 131 days to print and mail ballots and train poll workers) is a recipe for an electoral debacle like the one that engulfed Florida after the 2000 presidential election. California is also in the middle of modernizing its voting systems.
The confusion over the ballot also places greater pressure on possible candidates to replace Davis. The field is wildly uncertain. All it takes is 65 signatures and $3,500 to get on the ballot. But because the election appears to be on such a fast track, anyone with ambitions of replacing Davis now may have only a few days to decide whether to run.
Only Issa and a Green Party candidate, Peter Canejo, have committed to running. But the Republican and Democratic parties here are buzzing with behind-the-scenes intrigue about other prospective recall campaigns.
Schwarzenegger, a Republican who has never sought public office, has flirted with the idea of running against Davis for months. He also has organized a campaign team that would consist mostly of advisers to former two-term California governor Pete Wilson (R), whom Davis replaced in 1999.
But several Republican strategists with ties to Schwarzenegger said today that his wife, journalist Maria Shriver, is opposed to his running -- and that her opposition could keep him out of the race.
"Arnold is ready to go," said a prominent Republican official. "But she doesn't really want him to do this."
If Schwarzenegger doesn't run, his friend Richard Riordan, the former mayor of Los Angeles, might. Riordan is a moderate Republican with a record of attracting Democratic voters. He ran for governor last year, but his campaign did not entice conservative Republicans and fizzled in the GOP primary. Polls suggested that he could have beaten Davis in the general election. The candidate that Davis defeated in November, Republican businessman Bill Simon, also may run in the recall election.
Democrats, meanwhile, have rallied behind Davis. Every prominent elected official in the party here has vowed not to run in the recall. But some Democratic officials are so worried that Davis could be ousted -- because less than 25 percent of voters say he is doing a good job -- there is continuing chatter about whether the party should embrace a "caretaker" candidate who is in better standing with the public and who could complete the governor's term but not run for reelection in 2006.
Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) and former congressman Leon Panetta, who was President Bill Clinton's White House chief of staff, have been approached with such overtures but have rebuffed them.
The recall ballot also may be packed with lesser names because the requirements for qualifying are much easier than in regular elections. If voters decide to recall Davis, the winner of the election would need only a plurality of votes -- not a majority -- and would take office immediately.