The much-anticipated 2004 opening in Merced of the University of California's 10th campus -- billed to serve 1,000 students in its inaugural year -- has become little more than a long shot.

After weeks of deadlock over California's $38.2 billion budget shortfall, Senate leaders announced a compromise Thursday that scraps $4 million for the budding campus and calls instead for a 2005 opening. The Senate will vote on the deal Sunday night.

UC Merced Chancellor Carol Tomlinson-Keasey -- still optimistic that the Assembly will restore some or all of the funding -- concedes that without the extra $4 million, prospects for a grand opening of the fledgling campus are dimming.

"The waiting here is very difficult," Tomlinson-Keasey said Thursday. "There are dire consequences. I cannot responsibly move forward to hire faculty ... hire people for the library and hire admissions folks to review applications, which would have to start coming in around November."
Tomlinson-Keasey said her team will prepare for a more modest debut that probably will feature an inaugural class of a few hundred students rather than 1,000. Hiring 75 faculty members by July 1 -- scaled back from original plans to hire 100 -- would have to be pared down further, she said.

"I have become fond of telling people that Berkeley opened in 1868 with 40 students ... San Diego opened only with graduate students, and both campuses have had an envious outcome with quality and stature," she said. "There are all kinds of possibilities."

For several years, opening a UC campus next year in the San Joaquin Valley had been a favorite issue of politicians in both parties, including Gov. Gray Davis. The Democratic governor -- in a gesture to Central Valley constituents -- accelerated UC Merced's opening by a year when he announced in late 1999 that the campus would come on line in 2004 instead of 2005.

As this year's budget shortfall grew to epic proportions, however, lawmakers who had clamored for a 2004 opening re-evaluated the timing.

In the 40-member Senate, a full-scale opening next year remained a top priority for only one: Jeff Denham, a newly elected Republican from Salinas whose district includes Merced.

The Senate's most important opinion -- that of President Pro Tem John Burton, D-San Francisco -- spelled doom for the campus when he said in a floor speech last month that he would "sell off UC Merced in a minute -- biggest boondoggle ever."

Denham, who had hoped to spare at least $2 million for the campus, said of his fellow lawmakers: "It's easy for certain people to single out this campus when they've already got a UC in their district."

A 2004 opening stands some chance of revival when budget deliberations move to the Assembly, where there are more lawmakers in both parties lobbying for the campus.

One is Assemblyman Dave Cogdill, R-Modesto, who supports deeper spending cuts for higher education but believes UC officials are obligated to find money to ensure a 2004 opening for Merced.

"It needs to move forward," Cogdill said. "I think UC can find the money to keep Merced on track, if they are willing to honestly address waste and duplication."

UC officials say they already have trimmed everywhere they can.

"It's hard to see how we could (find $4 million for Merced) given all the other cuts we are taking," said spokesman Brad Hayward. "From a systemwide perspective, the Merced campus is a high priority because we need to do a better job serving the San Joaquin Valley, but it's challenging in this budget environment."

Despite of all the uncertainty, construction remains robust at the campus's rural site in eastern Merced County, said spokesman James Grant. More than $200 million -- all bond funds -- to pay for the first four buildings is secure, and contractors are moving dirt, installing utility lines and doing other work.

"There will be a campus here," Grant said. "We've gotten accustomed to having to justify our existence."