Everywhere you look in the latest polls on the recall of Gov. Gray Davis, in the laws and in voters' attitudes about the state of the state there's uncertainty and confusion. Almost every story is one of imponderables: The recall has so many moving parts that its only near-certainty is its unforeseeable consequences.

Consider just two headlines from The Bee.

"Poll contains unleavened bad news for Davis," said one, published July 15. "Voters' ambivalence gives Davis hope of winning," said the other, published the next day. Both headed pieces by columnist Dan Walters and dealt with results from the same polling organization.

Both were correct.

Davis' own approval ratings are in the tank; the voters say the state is going in the wrong direction and 51 percent declare that when the recall qualifies -- maybe as early as today -- they'll vote "yes" to dump Davis; 43 percent would vote "no" to retain him.

But there's really no way to know what those numbers predict. If the recall were an initiative, a 51-43 percentage margin would indicate that with a well financed "no" campaign, the measure would almost certainly fail. And you can be sure that Gov. Gray Davis and the public employee unions backing him will be perfectly able to run that kind of campaign.

But this is not an initiative, and since many voters are in fact ambivalent -- one of seven likely "yes" voters says the Davis recall is "a bad thing for California" -- there's no way to know. No recall of a statewide official has ever qualified in California.

To further confound things, nearly one in four "yes" voters and one of six "no" voters say their final decision will be affected by who runs to replace Davis. But the chances that their candidate will win may be no greater than one in four or five.

It's generally believed that the law gives voters two decisions on the same ballot: one on the recall, the other on a replacement if Davis is recalled. If the majority votes against Davis, the candidate with the plurality wins, even if none has a majority.

Thus, with enough candidates on the ballot, the next governor could be elected with 15 percent or 20 percent of the vote, even though 45 percent of the voters want to retain Davis.

But even that's not certain. As also reported by Walters, there's a chance that, because of ambiguous constitutional language, the courts might declare that Cruz Bustamante, as lieutenant governor, would be Davis' successor, and find that any election for other candidates is unconstitutional.

Talk about destabilizing government: Any Davis successor chosen under one of those scenarios had better be a political genius if he wants to persuade Californians of his legitimacy, restore confidence in California's government and reunite the state.

In last week's poll, the Field organization listed six candidates as possible replacements. None of the leaders in the pack, former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan (21 percent), actor Arnold Schwarzenegger (15 percent) or businessman Bill Simon (12 percent), who lost to Davis last November, has yet announced, although all have expressed some interest.

U.S. Rep. Darrell Issa, the Southern California conservative who's financed most of the recall campaign and who is one of the two declared candidates, trails the pack with 4 percent, behind the Green Party's Peter Camejo, the other declared candidate, who has 8 percent.

Most puzzling, maybe, is that of those who plan to vote "yes," 94 percent say that voting for recall is "a legitimate way for voters to express their displeasure" with the governor. But 40 percent believe recalling Davis wouldn't make it any easier to solve the state's problems.

To further confound things, some Democrat could still jump in, despite the declarations of Bustamante, Sen. Dianne Feinstein, Treasurer Phil Angelides and Attorney General Bill Lockyer that they'll maintain a solid front against the recall and not become candidates.

The uncertainties provide no end of openings for Davis' campaign managers. Do voters really want to recall even a much despised politician for an unknown roll-of-the dice replacement -- a muscleman-actor, who despite his moderate's nice-to-kids credentials sounds like a movie Nazi; or one of two losers in last year's gubernatorial contest; or a millionaire with a rap sheet; or one of what may be a long list of dwarfs who happen to have the $3,500 to get themselves on the ballot? Maybe some of them won't run. Under present circumstances you have to be a little nuts to want the job. Maybe the Republicans will get together and agree on one candidate.

But if so, who? Schwarzenegger and Riordan are too moderate for the California GOP; Simon is old goods, Issa is an unknown with a record that's an opponent's dream. Maybe Bustamante gets the job without doing anything. Maybe, maybe, maybe ... Californians will have to hold their noses to vote against the recall. But if they vote "yes," they better hold their breath. It's a risky way to vent.