SACRAMENTO - Gov. Gray Davis' would-be replacements are gearing up for a frenetic game of political chicken as they weigh whether or not to challenge him in a landmark recall election.

High-profile Republican candidates, ignoring half-hearted pleas for unity from state GOP leaders, are preparing to launch their campaigns. Behind the scenes, Davis allies are doing everything they can to prevent fellow Democrats from breaking ranks and putting their name on the ballot. And progressive activists across California are scrounging for a dynamic alternative who could jump in and pull off a Jesse Ventura-style upset.

``Get ready for Mr. Toad's Wild Ride,'' said Democratic consultant Darry Sragow.

Who decides to be a candidate -- including, possibly, actor Arnold Schwarzenegger -- could very well determine whether Davis survives a political coup, or goes down in history as the first California governor to be recalled by the voters.

Barring any last-minute legal land mines, Davis' fate is likely to be placed in the hands of voters by late September or early October. Once Secretary of State Kevin Shelley determines that recall advocates have collected 897,158 valid signatures on recall petitions, he will inform Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante that it's time to set a special election, which must be held within 60 to 80 days.

There's not much time between the starting gun and the finish line. Because candidates must declare their intentions to run at least 59 days before the recall, they will have no more than 20 days, and possibly just 24 hours -- depending on when Bustamante sets the election -- to make up their minds.

Setting election date

Bustamante said Tuesday it should take him no more than a day or so to set the date, and that he wants to make sure potential candidates have some time to decide whether to run.

``Only having a one-day filing period is not sufficient time,'' he said in an interview. ``People need to know that we're trying to do this the right way.''

The compressed time frame -- whether it is two days or 20 -- is certain to be an anxious one.

Aside from a GOP free-for-all, Davis' best chance of beating the recall is to make sure that all top-tier Democrats -- from Bustamante to U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein of San Francisco -- keep their words and refuse to put their names on the ballot. Recent polls have shown that opposition to the recall shrinks if Californians can vote for a Democratic alternative to Davis, who can't be a candidate to succeed himself.

While Democrats want to support Davis, they don't want to shoot themselves in the foot by refusing to field an alternative if voters decide to oust the governor.

The Democrats who have taken themselves out of the running are likely to be eyeing one another like wary gunmen at the OK Corral, itching to pull the trigger. If one Democrat decides to run, others may follow.

To prevent a massacre, some Democrats have floated the idea of rallying around one candidate -- but the notion has so far been beaten back by Davis loyalists.

Feinstein consultant Kam Kuwata said Tuesday that, for now, Democrats are holding the line.

``I think it's going to basically turn into a Republican primary,'' he said.

But while Democrats are idling on the sidelines, Republicans are revving their engines.

Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Vista, who spent $1.7 million to qualify the recall, called last month for the GOP to rally behind one candidate. But now he is gearing up to run, even if other Republicans jump in.

``Darrell Issa was in the campaign at the beginning, and he will be there at the end as a candidate -- no `ifs,' `ands' or `buts' about it,'' said Issa press officer Jonathan Wilcox.

The other big-name Republican that people are watching is Schwarzenegger, the Hollywood star looking to take the leap into politics. Tuesday, Schwarzenegger consultant George Gorton said the actor is likely to run -- although others said the actor is facing a lot of resistance from his wife, Democrat and journalist Maria Shriver, who is reluctant to put her family in the political spotlight.

``We believe he is going to run, and if he does, then it would be nice to have a field that didn't have some of the other key characters in it,'' said Gorton. ``It would be nice to have just one Republican candidate, but I don't know if that's possible to do.''

If Schwarzenegger stays out, that could prompt others to jump in. Former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan has said he won't run if his friend Schwarzenegger does, and Republican Assemblyman Keith Richman of Granada Hills said Tuesday in an interview that he is prepared to enter the race if Riordan and Schwarzenegger bow out.

But that's not all. Other GOP candidates are ready to take Issa's approach and run, despite the risk of splitting the Republican vote and losing the election to an 11th-hour Democratic candidate. Los Angeles businessman Bill Simon, who came within 5 percentage points of beating Davis last fall despite running a hapless campaign, is also edging toward a run, and conservative state Sen. Tom McClintock of Thousand Oaks is eyeing the race.

Non-GOP alternative

With a crowded field, some progressives are trying to find a dynamic alternative who might be able to rally disaffected voters. Even Green Party member Peter Camejo, who has announced his plans to run, said that he would be willing to back another candidate if the right person is found. Bay Area activists are launching a movement to draft columnist Arianna Huffington as one potential, but the search continues for others.

Tuesday, consumer advocate Harvey Rosenfield -- California's Ralph Nader -- said he's thinking about jumping into the race because of Davis' anti-consumer record.

``Anybody who participates or observes public policy being made in California and the absence of courage has to conclude that they can do better,'' he said.