A majority of voters in a statewide survey say they would remove Gov. Gray Davis if a recall election were held now against the unpopular second-term Democrat.

The nonpartisan Field Poll released Tuesday found likely California voters would recall Davis, 51 percent to 43 percent, with 6 percent undecided.

While Davis remains remarkably unpopular, however, the poll found that some recall supporters were willing to change their minds if state lawmakers end their budget standoff in the next few weeks or if a recall ballot offers no Democratic choices.

Field Poll Director Mark DiCamillo said voters' inclination to remove Davis could change significantly depending on who does -- or doesn't -- ultimately run as an alternative.

"You can't really make a solid estimation of how Davis is going to do in this election until you know who the alternatives are going to be," DiCamillo said. "The decision about one is going to affect the other."

The poll also found that neither of the two most popular potential Republican candidates, former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan and actor Arnold Schwarzenegger, respectively, enjoys substantial support.

Only 4 percent of likely voters picked U.S. Rep. Darrell Issa, a wealthy Southern California Republican and chief financier of the recall campaign, as their first replacement choice, making him the least popular among five GOP options and a Green candidate.

The poll, conducted July 1-13, included the Field organization's first measure of likely voters' support for the recall since a campaign to oust Davis was announced by anti-tax and Republican activists in February.

Elections officials are now trying to determine if proponents have collected the 897,158 valid voter signatures needed to trigger a recall election. It would be the first against a governor in California history.

Mara Armstrong, 56, a Democrat and property manager from Bakersfield, opposes the idea. She called Davis "inept" but said, "I don't think he's dishonest."

If she had to pick a backup candidate, she's inclined to go with Schwarzenegger.

"I don't care about he's hunky," she said. "But I like the things I see that he's done for his community. And I'd just as soon take a chance on someone who isn't a political animal than on any of the other choices."

John Howard, an 86-year-old Republican retiree from Exeter, supports the recall and blames Davis for failing to manage an out-of-control state budget.

"Personally, I think it should be easier than it is to recall someone," he said. "Anyone can get up on the stand and tell a lot of baloney. But when we find out it is baloney, we ought to be able to do something about it."

Howard said Riordan is his top replacement choice because of his experience and reputation as a social moderate.

"Riordan has a better possibility of doing good than the others," he said.

Two-thirds of likely voters agreed with the idea that recall was "a legitimate way for voters to express their displeasure with Davis' poor performance."

More than half felt Davis misled voters about the scope of state budget problems in last year's re-election campaign.

Still, two-thirds doubted that recalling Davis would make it any easier to close a state budget shortfall of $38.2 billion.

And what worried voters most about a recall was that in a plurality contest, the replacement could be a fringe candidate.

Davis supporters took comfort in the fact that only a slim majority supports the recall effort.

"Already half don't think the recall is a good idea," Davis adviser Roger Salazar said. "As soon as you tell people the truth about who's really behind this effort, that number drops even further."

Added Democratic Party campaign adviser Bob Mulholland: "We just have to shift five or six points. We will do that."

DiCamillo cautioned the governor's supporters against overconfidence, however.

Overall, sentiment has built against Davis since Issa began pumping $1.5 million into the recall campaign. In April, and again this month, pollsters asked registered voters how they would vote in a recall, regardless of their propensity to vote.

Among registered voters, support shot from 46 percent to 54 percent over the three-month period. Davis' approval rating was 23 percent in the latest Field Poll, released Tuesday.

"The wind is not blowing at Davis' back here," DiCamillo said. "It's in his face. He has to arrest that trend and turn it around."

DiCamillo also said results could turn on partisan turnout -- 81 percent of Republicans said they back a recall, while 69 percent of Democrats oppose it -- and timing.

"If there's a fall recall, there's very little time for Davis to rehabilitate his image with voters," DiCamillo said. "He needs the passage of time and good news to start permeating into California."

Issa and last year's Green Party gubernatorial nominee, Peter Camejo, are the only declared candidates. But Schwarzenegger, currently on a tour to promote "Terminator 3," is considering a candidacy. So is last year's GOP gubernatorial nominee, investor Bill Simon; state Sen. Tom McClintock of Simi Valley; and Riordan, who lost to Simon in the primary. Most prominent Democrats have pledged not to run.

Asked to name their first choice among replacements, 21 percent of likely voters chose Riordan. Schwarzenegger drew 15 percent; Simon, 12 percent; Camejo, 8 percent; McClintock, 7 percent; and Issa, 4 percent.

Democrats have focused their attacks on Issa, who, more than two decades ago, was charged with car theft but never convicted.

Issa's campaign manager, Scott Taylor, said the congressman's standing in the poll reflected Davis' "slime attack" and a lack of name recognition by voters outside Issa's district.

"They just don't know him," Taylor said. "Name ID can be improved with time and money, and Congressman Issa has both."

The poll found Riordan and Schwarzenegger share many fans and that either could gain four or five percentage points if the other stayed out of the race. Advisers say the two have discussed the likelihood that only one of them would run.

Still, 53 percent of likely voters were "not inclined" to support Riordan; Schwarzenegger's "not inclined" rating was 62 percent.

Forty-two percent of Democrats said their first choice for a replacement was a category dubbed "Someone else/None."

DiCamillo said that could hurt Davis by tempting his colleagues to break their pledges and run.

"Maybe the Democrats will hold the party line, but in politics, usually someone steps in to fill a vacuum," he said. "For an ambitious Democrat, there's an opportunity there."