The past 48 hours have been the most tumultuous in the modern history of California politics, and we are a state that has had its ups and downs. The approach of Saturday's filing deadline for candidates hoping to succeed Gov. Gray Davis if he is recalled from office has created an atmosphere of political chaos in a state already teetering on the edge of a government fiscal meltdown.

But as tempting as it might be to conclude that California is going over the edge, we are not. We are on our way toward holding an election to decide whether to keep the governor or dismiss him, just as the state constitution has allowed since 1911.

And if we decide to dismiss Davis, we will then decide who should replace him.

It's not that complicated.

To be sure, this is a historic moment. The state's voters have never before used this tool to remove a governor, or any other statewide officer. Only one other state has recalled its governor in the history of the union. To the political class, it seems as if the patients are taking over the asylum. Another way of looking at it is that the people are threatening to take back their government.

If there is confusion, it stems from the format of this two-part election. In the first, voters will pronounce judgment on Davis. In the second, we decide who should replace him if he goes.

Davis is listed on the first part of the ballot, up or down. He cannot appear on the second part. Nor can he resign to stop the process in its tracks. If he quits, the election goes on without him.

The replacement election is a one-shot, winner-take-all affair. There is no runoff. Those rules encourage multiple candidates to run, in hopes of winning with a small slice of the vote. But we should not forget that even regular general elections are sometimes decided by pluralities. Davis himself won his second term with less than a majority of the vote a year ago.

What's more, the candidates are already sorting themselves out. On Thursday, U.S. Rep. Darrell Issa, the San Diego County Republican who helped fund the signature-gathering drive and who was the first candidate to declare that he would run, suddenly withdrew. Issa's sketchy past, which Davis made a point of ramming home to voters, gave him a highly negative image with the public before the campaign had even begun. He was stuck near last place and going nowhere.

Issa's departure leaves actor Arnold Schwarzenegger, state Sen. Tom McClintock, and businessman Bill Simon as the remaining Republicans who have either entered the race or expressed a serious interest, and who can make a plausible argument for how they might win.

On the Democratic side, the attempt by Davis forces to keep everyone united -- and out of the race -- has failed. Instead, Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante is in, and says he will urge voters to vote against the recall while voting for him to succeed Davis in the event the recall wins. Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi is also running. And we won't know for sure about two other possible candidates, Attorney General Bill Lockyer and Treasurer Phil Angelides, until the filing deadline passes.

Investor and former baseball commissioner Peter Ueberroth is thinking about running as an independent. Commentator Arianna Huffington is already in. Peter Camejo is running as a Green. Former Assemblywoman Audie Bock is in as a Democrat. Hustler Magazine publisher Larry Flynt says he's running -- as a Democrat. So might be actor Gary Coleman and a Los Angeles model who goes by one name -- Angelyne. By the time the filing deadline comes and goes, we might have 50 or more people on the ballot.

But with the exception of Ueberroth, Camejo and Huffington, few of these candidates are going to get much attention once the campaign is under way. The media, and the voters, will begin to assess the competitors in a fairly logical and rational way.

One political consultant has suggested to me that we will have, in effect, a mental primary election as voters first consider the candidates from the party to which they belong. Only this time, on election day, nothing will stop them from crossing party lines.

Where does all this leave Davis? In deep trouble, to be sure. His hope of painting the recall as a right-wing conspiracy has faded with the arrival of moderate Republicans, independents, leftists and, especially, fellow Democrats. Now his best hope is that he can portray the whole affair as an unseemly circus that is bad for California. But that also risks leading voters who agree with him to simply stay home, while those who want him out will flock to the polls.

In the end, whether Davis stays or goes, California will be changed by this experience, and probably for the better. More people than ever before are talking about state politics and government. The walls built by politicians and their handlers to keep the public out are crumbling. That's a good thing.

It looks messy now. The jokes are coming easy. The rest of the nation is rolling its eyes at us. But this is no prank. It's a serious revolt by people of all political stripes upset at their government.

Watch Gray Davis. He gets it. Finally. And he's not laughing.