Even the most addicted of political junkies could overdose on the California recall election, as every day -- and sometimes every hour -- brings some new development that affects Gov. Gray Davis' chances of remaining in office and the fortunes of the 135 people whose names will appear on the ballot as replacements.

The weekend produced two major jolts -- Republican Bill Simon's decision to drop out, thus improving movie star Arnold Schwarzenegger's prospects of consolidating the GOP vote, and a Los Angeles Times poll indicating that pro-recall sentiment among voters is fading and Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante's chances of winning the replacement election are improving.

Simon, last year's Republican challenger to Davis, recognized the reality that with Schwarzenegger in the race, his standing had faded to the also-ran category -- just a few percentage points in major polls. Simon had been conducting an I-told-you-so tour of the state, but finally realized that it would have been foolish to spend millions of dollars on a full-fledged drive.
Republican Party leaders, some of whom were leery about the recall drive in the first place, have been trying to winnow the field of GOP candidates in hopes of giving Schwarzenegger a clear shot at the governorship. If the recall election is to be held, they reason, the party would be embarrassed if either Davis survived or another Democrat, such as Bustamante, retained the governorship. Having Simon out is a major step toward consolidation, but it may be tougher to get the other two major GOP candidates, state Sen. Tom McClintock and former major league baseball commissioner Peter Ueberroth, to quit.

Both Ueberroth, who fancies himself an independent, and McClintock said Monday that they would remain in the contest until the end, regardless of party pressure. "I think I can win," Ueberroth said during a meeting with The Bee's Capitol Bureau. "I have a seat at the poker table." Later, asked point-blank whether he would continue until election day, he replied, "I'm in it."

McClintock, who's running ahead of Ueberroth in the polls, said much the same thing in a separate interview, suggesting, semi-facetiously, that Schwarzenegger should quit and support him, and insisting that no amount of pressure would get him to quit.

If the GOP vote is divided, many strategists believe, Schwarzenegger will be at a disadvantage vis-à-vis Bustamante, the only major Democratic candidate, as unions and other Democratic groups consolidate behind the lieutenant governor.

Bustamante's prospects seemingly got a boost in the Los Angeles Times poll, which showed him with a strong lead, 35 percent to 22 percent, over Schwarzenegger among likely voters, with McClintock and Ueberroth trailing at 12 and 7 percent respectively.

But the same poll also showed the "yes" side of the recall itself with a very small lead over "no." And that could bolster Davis' resolve to continue fighting the ouster attempt and give major Democratic Party interest groups reason to pause as they consider whether to shift money from helping Davis fight the recall to helping Bustamante prevail.

What makes the Times poll's findings so problematic is that they stand in stark contrast to recent polls by Field Research and the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC). Both had the pro-recall side winning by double-digit margins and Schwarzenegger and Bustamante running very close. Could the situation have changed so radically in the few days that separated the Times poll from the others, or did the Times' pollsters use a different methodology that produced different results? Public and private pollsters buzzed among themselves Monday, seeking some explanation for the sharp contrast -- especially the Times poll's anomalous finding that anti-recall and pro-Bustamante sentiment had surged among Democrats.

The Democratic Party spin was that Davis' televised speech last week, in which he semi-apologized for some actions but stoutly defended his overall record, may have changed the campaign's dynamics -- but the speech was not widely broadcast and was generally panned by journalistic analysts for its defensive tone.

So where does this strange, infinitely fluid political situation stand six weeks before election day? A political oddsmaker's worst nightmare.