Bach, 19, couldn't get the criminal justice classes she needed when she went to register for the fall term at Ventura College. Course offerings in the field were reduced through cuts related to the budget, so Bach had no choice but to enroll in business classes.

"I'm bummed they got rid of some of my classes," the Ventura woman said Tuesday. "I did not expect them to cut all those classes."

Bach is one of thousands of California college students who are feeling the painful blow of the higher education double whammy as they head to class beginning Monday. The collision of tough economic times with rapidly increasing demand for higher education services has left public colleges and universities struggling to serve more students with fewer resources.

It's a collision that is quickly affecting California's ability to deliver the high-quality, low-cost college education the state's residents expect. Tuition increases and budget-driven enrollment caps are restricting students' access to what was once one of the most accessible systems of higher education in the country.

The double whammy also is causing educators and lawmakers around the country to re-examine how higher education is delivered and how it is funded, which could ultimately lead to fundamental changes. Fixed pricing for college tuition, vouchers, and high-fee, high-financial aid plans will be closely examined by state and federal legislators.

"We're pretty much standing at a crossroads," said Leo Munoz, a policy associate for the Washington, D.C.-based American Association of State Colleges and Universities. "Significant policy decisions need to be made as to what kind of role the state is willing to commit to (in funding) higher education."

"California is going to be one of the leading states in hashing this out."

How we got here

California's higher education systems have weathered recessions before. Educators have learned to adapt to a financial roller coaster that saw them suffer deep cuts when the economy dipped and big gains when the economy improved.

"This has happened through the last few recessions," said Will Doyle, a senior policy analyst with the National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education in San Jose. "It makes it hard for colleges and universities, because tuition goes up at the exact time when people can least afford it."

"Then things get so much better (the memories of the bad times) simply fade away," he said.

This time around, though, there is a critical difference -- a boom in the population of college-age students. That swell was fueled by increasing immigration and the large generation of children born to baby boomers. The number of college-age children is expected to continue to rise over the next 10 years, in a phenomenon educators call Tidal Wave II.

At the same time, the recession has sent more adults back to school for more training and to improve their job skills. Colleges and universities are finding themselves in a population explosion of sorts.

In the fall of 2002, California's colleges and universities saw record enrollment, growing by 5 percent to 7 percent over the fall 2001 count. Community college enrollment was up by 115,000 students across 108 campuses, while the CSU's enrollment increased by 18,000 students, to 406,900 at 23 campuses. The UC added 10,000 more students at its nine campuses.

"We have a lot more people that want to go to college," said CSU Channel Islands President Richard Rush. "The commitment of the state has been, for a very long time, to provide access to quality education."

But the increased demand for services comes at a time when the country's struggling economy has brought tax revenues down, forcing states to cut costs, raise taxes or both. In California, education is highly subsidized, and the state doesn't have additional resources -- beyond tuition increases -- to cover higher costs.

"It's really quite startling when you consider the historic commitment to higher education in California," said Robert Turnage, vice chancellor for fiscal policy at the California Community College Chancellor's Office. "All three segments of public higher education are going to be doing their best to figure out, number one, how to serve students more effectively, and, number two, how to preserve access."

Though there is a wide public expectation for the state to provide high-quality, low-cost public higher education, the reality is there is no guarantee for funding.

"For K-12 (public schools) there's mandatory attendance, and the state has an obligation to fund that," Munoz said. "You don't have that same obligation with higher education."

This year, money for higher education has been slashed in all 50 states, and many public colleges and universities are raising fees, as well. In California, community colleges lost $310 million for the 2003-2004 budget; the California State University system was cut $345 million; and the University of California lost $410 million. Fees in each system were raised 30 percent or more.

Language within the budget indicates lawmakers will not pay for any additional enrollment growth during the 2004-2005 school year for the CSU or UC systems, which have grown an average of 4 percent to 7 percent in recent years.

Most CSU campuses won't be admitting additional students for the spring 2004 term, which could shut out as many as 30,000 students.

University of California officials say they might even have to quit admitting the top 12 percent of qualified California high school graduates, saying they can no longer uphold the 40-year-old commitment outlined in the state's Master Plan for Higher Education.

"That promise is fading," said Hanan Eisenman, media coordinator for admissions at the UC Office of the President. "We're trying to do a range of things to cope. We feel we've cut as deep as we can without affecting the quality of our instructional programs."

A dangerous trip

If students are shut out of college, the ramifications could be wide-reaching, affecting a generation of individuals as well as the state as a whole.

"I think that is a very dangerous trip to be going on, because the California economy relies on the outcome of higher education at the UC and the CSU to develop new products and provide trained employees," said CSU Chancellor Charles B. Reed.

The ability to go to college also is a "chance to enter the middle class. That really aids society because college graduates contribute back into their communities, commit less crime, provide support for health care," he said.

Students denied access to a UC or CSU campus because of budget constraints are likely to turn to community colleges, creating a domino effect and putting additional strain on another system strapped by budget constraints.

"We're already operating on a shoestring. There's only so much more that can be done," Turnage said. "We sustained a serious amount of cuts at the same time we expect to serve an increasing amount of students. Nobody is under the illusion that in 2004-05 things are going to be fantastic."

The effects of the double whammy already are being felt by students. Classes start Monday at the county's community colleges, and most core courses such as English, math, science and speech are filled to capacity.

At Oxnard College, advanced science classes such as microbiology and anatomy have been filled for more than a week, said Dean Steve Hall.

"Every class we offer is now full, and we could have 30 people waiting on the first day" trying to get in, he said. "I could add another section of all of those (science classes) and they would all be full."

Students are paying $7 more per unit but have fewer courses to choose from because course offerings were cut by about 10 percent districtwide.

There are fewer workers to counsel students, take their payments and help with financial aid. Colleges are struggling to find part-time instructors to replace full-time teachers who retired through a budget-driven early retirement deal.

"Right now I'm looking for two math and two English instructors," said Joan Smith, executive vice president at Ventura College. "The classes are full. If I can't find instructors, I'll have to cancel them."

"The wait in counseling last year was 15 to 20 minutes," Smith said. "Now it's an hour and 45 minutes. The counselors are doing a fabulous job, but there are fewer of them."

Many community college students are relying on financial aid and waivers to cover the hike in tuition. Still, they're frustrated by the increasing costs and other effects of the budget crisis.

"We're planning to take classes at night because the classes aren't as full," said 21-year-old Griselda Solis of Santa Paula, who was filling out fee waiver forms with her boyfriend at Ventura College last week. "It's going to get harder (to pay for school). I just pay for my books, and that's hard enough."

What the future holds

"No one group can solve this problem on its own," said Doyle of the National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education. "And we can't continue with business as usual."

Instead, educators, state and federal lawmakers, and even students and their families will have to work together to address the problems.

States need to stabilize funding, colleges and universities need to become more efficient and productive, perhaps through technology, and students need to be prepared to pay more for school, Doyle said. Tuition increases should be fixed and regular, rather than the rapid spikes seen this year.

"That kind of rate of increase is not sustainable into the future," Doyle said. "Tuition is going to increase. Having increases that are moderate and predictable, based on something like average family income, will help."

National issues

The reauthorization of the federal Higher Education Act should prompt lawmakers to take a closer look at the quality, affordability and accessibility of public higher education across the country.

"The reauthorization is bringing to light a lot of issues that have been simmering for a while," Doyle said. "The timing of this is going to make for a lot of scrutiny."

The Higher Education Act is the federal law that governs the $60 billion federal student financial aid program, including Pell Grants and government-backed student loans. The law comes up for extension every six years.

Rep. Howard "Buck" McKeon, who represents California's 25th House district, which includes the Santa Clarita and Antelope valleys, is overseeing the reauthorization as chairman of the House subcommittee on 21st century competitiveness.

Because he is concerned about the rapid rise in college costs, McKeon plans to introduce legislation to create the Affordability in Higher Education Act, which would establish a "college affordability index," said his press secretary, Vartan Dijahanian.

The legislation, which McKeon plans to introduce in September, would set a standard measurement for tuition increases so students could compare them in relation to the Consumer Price Index.

If an institution were to increase its cost of attendance -- including tuition, books, fees, room and board -- by more than two times the CPI, the institution could face penalties, including the loss of federal aid, though direct aid to students would not be affected.

State issues

California lawmakers are expected to take a hard look at several key funding issues in the coming months: structural changes to California's budget; ways to make higher education less dependent on the state's general fund; and ways to deliver the same services at a lower cost.

Earlier this month, at the height of the budget debate in Sacramento, Assembly Higher Education Committee Chairwoman Carol Liu, D-La Canada Flintridge, told her colleagues that the committee would begin reviewing alternative methods of funding for higher education so colleges and universities would be less dependent on the state's general fund.

"What she'd like to see is some measure of stability and predictability within the funding system," said Liu's spokeswoman, Suzanne Reed.

Hearings are expected to begin in September. Among the proposals to be reviewed are a voucher system like that proposed in Colorado this year. Students, rather than colleges and universities, would be awarded a specific amount of money, which they could use at any public institution they chose.

"The incentive would then be to the institution to be as efficient as possible," said Bruce Hamlett, chief consultant for the California Assembly Higher Education Committee.

Another proposal is a learn, earn and reimburse plan, where students would pay nothing up front for their education but would reimburse the state after graduation, using a percentage formula based on their earnings over a set period of time.

A third proposal is a high-fee, high-financial aid system, where fees are raised, but financial aid is provided to help students who can't afford the higher fees. Right now, California students pay about 15 percent of the actual cost of their education, Hamlett said. A high-fee proposal could raise that to 50 percent of the actual cost.

As many as 10 different proposals could be considered by the committee. The members also will look at ways that higher education services can be delivered at a lower cost, using technology or other means, Hamlett said. The committee will hold several hearings to review proposals and could make a recommendation by January.

"There is no one favored solution right now," Liu's spokeswoman Reed said. "Everything is up for grabs."

Local issues

Many of the decisions affecting public education in California will come out of Sacramento, but local educators are making plans for the future, as well.

CSU, Channel Islands, officials are in a particular quandary -- they have to try to grow and build a new four-year institution at a time when the CSU system is cutting costs and limiting growth.

"My argument is that, as a start-up, we have special needs," President Rush said. "We don't have places to cut. We just don't have padding."

Chancellor Reed has committed to helping the new campus, but he doesn't yet know how he'll do it. "We've got to figure out how to keep them going. We've got to figure out how to help that campus grow a little," he said.

Ventura County Community College trustees would like to develop a strategic plan -- a plan that establishes priorities based on the colleges' mission, economic trends, work force needs and other factors -- that will help guide them as they make decisions regarding funding.

"What we're finding is that we're having to make decisions without any long-range planning," said trustee Art Hernandez. "We really need to focus on where we're going. We are tight on money, but we want to continue to invest in those areas that are most important: community college access, transfer to four-year schools, vocational and job training."

Perhaps the biggest challenge for educators, though, is to maintain a positive attitude and stay focused on the students still streaming through the doors.

"The concern we all have is that students read in the news about the budget, all of it bad news, and they may start to think 'I shouldn't even try to enroll,' " said Moorpark College President Eva Conrad. "This is still a wonderful place to get an education. College is still the most important investment you can make in your future."