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Friday, August 15, 2003
 

Sacramento Bee 8-15-03

Davis' support plunges
Nearly 6 in 10 likely voters back his recall, a poll finds
By Gary Delsohn

 

Gov. Gray Davis is now less popular in California than Richard Nixon was during Watergate, and nearly six in 10 of those likely to go to the polls Oct. 7 said they'll vote to recall him.

A Field Poll released Thursday showed that support for recalling the Democratic governor is growing -- up seven points from just a month ago -- and more than four in 10 voters think he should resign.

Davis is so unpopular and beleaguered, the poll found, that almost seven of 10 likely voters believe Davis will be recalled.

If they're right, Davis would be only the second governor in the nation's history to meet such a fate.

"We've never had a state or a national officeholder rated so low," said pollster Mervin Field, who's been in the business 56 years.

"It's really phenomenal the way the public is so sour on Davis in every respect. People say it's not all his fault, and it's probably not all his fault personally. But all the elements are conspiring against Davis."

Only 22 percent of registered voters in the survey taken between Sunday and Wednesday approve of the job Davis is doing as governor, compared to Nixon's 24 percent approval when he resigned as president in August 1974.

Former Gov. Pete Wilson, who's now co-chairman of Arnold Schwarzenegger's campaign to replace Davis, was rated excellent or good by only 15 percent in May 1993, but pollsters later simplified their rating system, so Davis' current rating is actually lower.

Another 42 percent of likely voters in this latest Field Poll -- including nearly a quarter of Democrats -- said Davis should resign. Twenty-seven percent of Democrats said he should be recalled.

The numbers come as Davis' biggest supporters in organized labor are evaluating his chances and deciding whether to focus their efforts on a replacement candidate.

The Field Poll was immediately denounced by the Davis campaign, even though the numbers were close to those in last weekend's CNN/Time magazine survey that had Davis losing the recall 54 percent to 35 percent.

"There are going to be a million different polls with a million different results over the next several weeks," said Peter Ragone, a spokesman for Davis' anti-recall effort.

"Folks should just keep in mind polls have been wrong about Gray Davis throughout his career and they're wrong now. The truth is, it's virtually impossible to poll this race. It's so fluid, there are (135) candidates, it's a non-traditional ballot. Polls are very suspect."

Davis has insisted he will not resign.

The Field Poll, which surveyed 629 registered voters, dealt only with Davis and the recall. It carries a margin of error of plus or minus five percentage points.

When Field examined the recall last month, the results showed Davis with a fighting chance. But the governor has slipped dramatically in just four weeks.

At that time, voters were supporting the recall by a margin of 51 percent to 43 percent. Now the margin is 58 percent to 37 percent, with just 5 percent undecided.

"There isn't any formula that looks promising," Field said of Davis' chances. "And this is not sudden. This is something that's been growing. It could even be classified as a tidal wave."

Davis is in deep trouble, the poll shows, despite the fact that 47 percent of those surveyed think the recall is bad for California.

"It's a case where his supporters who may have had, let's say, mixed feelings, may have even more mixed feelings now about continuing to support him," Field said.

The numbers are even more damaging to Davis, Field said, because of the peculiar nature of the recall election.

Voters will first be asked whether they want Davis recalled. Part two of the ballot deals with who should replace Davis if he's recalled.

"If this were a typical race," Field said, "and you had Davis against another candidate, and let's say the other candidate was preferred overwhelmingly to you but you still had the campaign to go and you had money, you could say, 'OK, I'm not well liked and my numbers may be down the tubes, but there's still the other guy. Maybe something could happen to him. ... Then I might have a chance.' "

Davis is weak throughout the state, according to the poll. Voters in Los Angeles County, typically a Democratic stronghold, want him recalled by a margin of 55 percent to 36 percent. In the rest of Southern California, the pro-recall margin skyrockets to 66 percent to 30 percent.

Davis appears politically healthy only in the San Francisco Bay Area, where 43 percent of voters want Davis recalled. For the rest of Northern California, it's yes on the recall by a margin of 64 percent to 30 percent.

"This isn't like an initiative, where opinions change," said Mark DiCamillo, Field's polling partner. "This is about a governor people have had pretty strong opinions on for five years. Voters don't like his policies. They don't like him. Forty-two percent favor his resignation. Twenty-three percent of his own party want him to resign. These are very bad numbers."

For James Warkentin, a 52-year-old out-of-work industrial engineer from Sacramento who participated in the poll, Davis and his policies have hurt too many people. So he's voting yes on the recall and will pick Republican businessman Bill Simon, who lost to Davis last November, to replace him.

"The economic problems in California have been aggravated by what he's done, and that's the reason we need to get him out," said Warkentin, a registered Republican. "There's too many people out of work ... I think just having someone else in there would do a lot in terms of the attitude and perception of our state. California is perceived around the country as a high-problem state, and a lot of that is because of Davis."

But a number of Democrats who were surveyed said they thought the recall was a waste of taxpayer money and sour grapes from Republicans who want to undo last November's election victory by Davis.

"I can't say I'm a great Davis supporter, but I feel the problem with the California economy is not totally his fault," said Charlotte Stafford of Manteca, a retired manager at Pacific Bell.

"A lot of it has to do with the problems with the energy crisis where Bush and Cheney said, 'California, you're on your own,' and wouldn't do anything about it. If you want to recall someone, recall Cheney and Bush."

Regardless of the respondents' political leanings, however, it's clear from the poll results that most people think the recall is hurting California.

More than half of those surveyed said the recall was a waste of taxpayer money, and 54 percent agreed that "the recall election has become a joke, making California the laughingstock of the nation."

But in yet another portent of political disaster for Davis, 65 percent of all likely voters agreed that "electing a new governor will move California in a new direction."