With less than two months to change the public's perception, Gov. Gray Davis hit the campaign trail Monday running more against himself and his own record than against the shadow of up to 195 wannabe successors.

As polls show Davis' chances of remaining in office plummeting, the governor tried to turn things around in appearances on NBC-TV's "Today' show and at the Simon Wiesenthal Center in Los Angeles.

Campaign analysts said Davis faces a difficult but not impossible dual task of proving in two months that he can govern better than he has in the past five years, while knocking down the opposition without looking like a negative campaigner.

"He (Davis) may not be toast, but he's very warm bread,' said Jack Pitney, a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College. "Anything's possible in this environment. The more stories about the chaos of the recall, the better for Davis because one of his arguments can be (for voters) to turn away from the process.

"He needs to give people a reason to vote for him, which is difficult, given the current state of the California economy but he can talk about his plans for the future. Second, he has to give people a reason to vote against the opposition.'

Davis is usually better at giving people reasons to vote against his opponents than for him, but analysts warned such a tactic could backfire this time because even if he knocks off front-running Arnold Schwarzenegger, it brings the next prominent candidate to the top and could trigger a backlash in favor of the recall.

Even ardent recall supporters, while acknowledging they're pleased with the numbers so far, know better than to count Davis out. He is a strong, effective campaigner, and they are being careful not to underestimate him.

"Two months is an eternity in politics,' said Chris Wysocki, a spokesman for Rescue California, the main pro-recall group. "A lot can happen between now and then. But I'll tell you this much: I would much rather be where we are than where he is.'

A lot of the polling numbers, he said, were driven by Schwarzenegger's entry into the race, and some of that boost may fade as the campaign progresses.

The new poll from CNN/USA Today/Gallup found 69 percent of probable California voters would toss Davis from office. Arnold Schwarzenegger was the top choice for a replacement candidate, garnering 28 percent from probable voters while Democratic Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante came in second with only 8 percent. Former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan, who is not running, would have received 13 percent.

An NBC News poll released Monday had similar results, finding that support for the recall was 59 percent among registered voters, while Schwarzenegger was the top candidate, with 31 percent, to Bustamante's 18 percent.

The new figures in favor of the recall were even higher than a poll released only two days earlier by Time/CNN, which tallied support for the recall at 54 percent among registered voters, and Schwarzenegger topping the list with 25 percent. The Time/CNN poll also found that 39 percent of Democratic voters support the recall. The magazine's poll listed figures for registered voters, but not likely or probable voters.

In his "Today' show interview, Davis said he has "gotten the message. I understand a lot of people signed a recall.'

But he also called it "an insult to the 8 million people who went to the polls last November and decided I should be governor.' Davis beat Republican Bill Simon with 3.5 million votes to 3.2 million.

In his appearance at the Simon Wiesenthal Center, Davis shrugged off the poll results, saying he was focused on doing his best job as governor. His priorities, he said, include increasing privacy protections for consumers' financial information, reforming the worker's compensation system and addressing the state's structural budget problems.

"You know, there will be a lot of polls over the next couple weeks,' Davis said. "There was just one yesterday that had quite different results. My focus is to do my job. A lot of people want to be governor, I am privileged to be the governor, and I am going to spend every day I can making life better.'

He added that California is not the only state facing problems, but is affected by the nation's economy's slump.

Several political analysts agreed that Davis in the next few weeks more than ever needs to show that he can and is governing the state, and is prepared to address the problems facing Californians, rather than simply relying on negative attacks against recall backers.

"Gray Davis needs to actively, aggressively and visibly address the concerns of Californians,' said Darryl Sragow, a Democratic strategist not involved in the recall. "He needs to be a very visible active governor.'

"He can certainly campaign against the process, because voters have pretty serious misgivings about the risks attendant with this process, but he absolutely should speak no ill of any of the people running on that second question on the ballot, because voters want to see their governor governing.'

Davis has a reputation as a highly effective campaigner, especially in his ability to exploit opponents' weaknesses. But some analysts believe his negative campaigning may have backfired by alienating voters.

And in this election he doesn't have a single opponent that he can focus on because if he paints that person negatively, voters can turn to the next name on the ballot while still ousting Davis.

"He's been an incredible campaigner in an environment that allows you to focus on your opponent,' said Fernando Guerra, director of the Center for the Study of Los Angeles at Loyola Marymount University.

Guerra believes Davis' main opponent, Schwarzenegger, has a weakness in his vagueness on most of the issues so far. That could reinforce an image that he is a movie star who doesn't know how to govern.

Some say they don't expect to hear Davis touting his accomplishments of the past five years, given the difficult times California has been through. While Davis has mentioned the rise in test scores and increases in health insurance for children, those elements have not been a dominant part of his public statements about the recall so far.

"Typically the kinds of accomplishments you would look toward if you were governor would be things related to economic prosperity,' said Jeffrey Lewis, a political science professor at UCLA.

"It's tough when you are the governor during a recession. Particularly in California, where there's not a lot of latitude, for either he or the legislature to balance things up.'