State Legislative and Congressional Races Found a Few Surprises

Most of the attention election night and since has been focused on the Democrats taking control of the House of Representatives and the Senate (with San Francisco Congress Member Nancy Pelosi likely to become Speaker). California once again bucked the trend with a few surprises on Election Night, however.

Voters elected two Republicans statewide, shifted one seat in Congress from one party to the other contributing to the changes in Washington, and Republicans appear (votes are still being counted) to have picked up an additional seat in the State Senate. Other than these changes one can look at the California election as one of status quo.

Congress
California’s safe seats should have made California a non-factor in the Democrats efforts to take back Congress. However, two northern Californian Members of Congress, John Doolittle and Richard Pombo were in tight races this cycle. Pombo ultimately failed in his bid to return to Congress, losing to Jerry McNerney by 53 percent to 46 percent in one of the biggest upsets of the year.

Assembly
No changes took place in the Assembly this cycle given the safe seats that were created by both parties during the redistricting agreement of several years ago. All races are really decided in the primary as a result of the districts today leaving few seats that are targeted by one party or the other to gain seats. The Assembly added 36 new members to their house – 25 Democrats and 11 Republicans leaving the house in firm control of Speaker Nunez and his caucus. In the State Senate, 12 of the 40 Senate seats will be held by newly elected people – 9 Democrats, 2 Republicans and possibly 3 (votes still being counted in Senate District 34 between Lou Correa and Lynn Daucher).

The Democrats maintained their seats within the Assembly, with Anna Caballero winning Simon Salinas’ old seat in the Central Valley, Cathy Galgiani winning her old boss’ seat (Barbara Matthews) in the Tracy region and incumbent Nicole Parra who came close to losing, but ultimately beat back former CHP Officer Danny Gilmore in one of the closer races this year in San Diego (51.8 percent to 48.2 percent of the vote.)

The Republicans were successful in defending Guy Houston’s seat in the East Bay, as well as Shirley Horton and Bonnie Garcia’s seats in San Diego and Palm Springs. Assembly Member Garcia faced the second close race in the Assembly, along with Assembly Member Parra as former Assembly Member Steve Clute narrowed the margin over the night from 51.1 percent to 48.9 percent. Despite the Democrat’s attempts to take advantage of comments by Assembly Member Garcia, the voters of the Inland Empire stood by their member and it will land her back in Sacramento for her final term.

The Democrat and Republican Caucuses met within 24 hours after the election to select their leaders for the new session. Speaker Nunez has been selected to continue serving as the leader in the house. The Republicans, on the other hand, selected a new leader, Mike Villines replacing George Plescia from San Diego county. Plescia, who is entering into his last two years in the Assembly, was considered less effective than prior leaders in negotiations on budget, bonds and other key issues. As a result, Villines, who was previously a staffer for Chuck Poochigian and is a Fresno State alumni, ultimately received an unanimous vote of his caucus. Observers believe that this change in leadership reflects the frustration of more conservative members feeling that their concerns were not well represented in negotiations within the legislature and the Administration.

Senate
Two Senate races were rumored to be in play this year, but this rumor fizzled after the election results. Senator Jeff Denham (R-Merced) was thought to be facing serious challenge in competitor Wiley Nickel but instead easily prevailed with a 19 percent lead. The closest and one of the most expensive races ever was the 34th Senate race in Santa Ana. This race to replace Senator Joe Dunn pitted two moderate candidates, Democratic Orange County Supervisor Lou Correa and Republican Assembly Member Lynn Daucher.

Early on this race was tainted by a letter targeting Latino voters that sought to discourage their participation by stating the need for identification. This letter was ultimately traced back to Republican candidate for Congress, Tan Nguyen. This was then followed by a last minute write in campaign for a more conservative candidate for State Senate, Otto Bade, which was backed by a controversial Democratic operative, who apparently was hoping to undercut Ms. Daucher’s voter base.

As this Report went to print, with all precincts reporting and just 10,000 absentee ballots left to go, Ms. Daucher is prevailing by less than 400 votes, clearly demonstrating that every vote does count. Over the next thirty days, provisional ballots, late absentee ballots (ballots dropped off on Election Day) will be verified and counted and hordes of political operatives and lawyers will be watching this race very closely.